新基建：既是当务之急，又是长远支撑（英文版）

本文英文版发表于 SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (SSRG-IJEMS) – Volume 7 Issue 4 – April 2020（后附中文版本）

New Infrastructure Construction in China: Both Urgent and Long-Term Support

Jia Kang

Jia Kang, President of China Academy of New Supply-side Economics, Research Fellow in Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Beijing, the People’s Republic of China

Abstract

Under the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the downturn in the international market, China’s economy is facing extraordinary pressure in 2020. It is necessary to take extraordinary measures, including new infrastructure, to offset the economic downturn, and strive to combine short-term measures with the modernization strategic goals in the mid- and long-term. This paper defines China’s upcoming new infrastructure as an infrastructure construction that is closely integrated with the development and application of digital information technology, which is at the frontier of new technologies and new economic development. Then the paper discusses its important significance and role in supporting the fighting of the epidemic, creating a “new economy”, and promoting the high-quality development of the national economy. There is great room for its development in China. The paper emphasizes that it must be integrated with reform and innovation of “institutional infrastructure”, and specifically analyzes the use of private enterprises and PPP mechanisms in new infrastructure. In order to implement new infrastructure, local governments must take extraordinary measure to strive to form a high-level customized plan for supply-side reform in their jurisdictions.

Keywords:China’s new infrastructure, new economy, new technology, PPP, supply-side reform

I. INTRODUCTION

Under the dual impact of the domestic epidemic, and international financial turmoil and market downturn, the pressure on the Chinese economy in 2020 is in an extraordinary time. In this special year, extraordinary measures are needed, and the significance of the “new infrastructure construction” that is the focus of all parties should be understood objectively and comprehensively as a matter of urgency. Meanwhile, the new infrastructure construction provides strong backup for China to lead the new economic normal and achieve high-quality development and also forms a long and medium term strategic option.

The import significance of the new infrastructure construction has been constantly highlighted in the process of making progress in China, fighting for the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and striving to achieve a high-quality upgrade. In December 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference made important guidance for the promotion of “new infrastructure construction” (referred to as “new infrastructure”), those related to 5G commercialization, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, Internet of Things, etc. were designated as the specific contents of the new infrastructure. In July 2019, the Conference of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee clearly called for the stabilization of manufacturing investment. While implementing the construction of supplementary shortcomings such as the transformation of old urban communities, urban parking lots and urban-rural cold chain logistics facilities, it accelerated the promotion of new infrastructure such as information networks. In early 2020, under the severe impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, in order to overcome difficulties and create a new situation, the conference of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in February and the conference of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in March, while further emphasizing the acceleration of new infrastructure, clearly added the construction content of “data center”, and in particular pointed out to “pay attention to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment”.

New infrastructure is not a repetition of investment measures such as “4 trillion”. This time, the new infrastructure emphasizes the construction of infrastructure that is closely related with the development and application of digital information technology, the frontier of new economy and new technology development. It will also draw on the investment experience during the last two rounds of resisting the Asian financial crisis and the world financial crisis. In terms of funding sources, government debt funds, industrial guidance funds, etc. will be combined with PPPs and other institutional innovations, focusing on new investment and financing models.

II. NEW INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORTS FIGHTING THE EPIDEMIC, CREATES NEW ECONOMY, AND PROMOTES THE HIGH-QUALITY OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL ECONOMY

What are the main difference between the characteristics of the new infrastructure and those of the traditional infrastructure? In a word, it is closely related with the development and application of digital information technology in the frontier of the new technology revolution - technological ecological upgrade, which is to support the development of the digital economy and the overall national economy with high technology. The functional role of this new infrastructure interpreted from the perspective of economic theory, which is to cut in from the conditions of economic development, forms an effective supply capacity synthesized by related hardware and software under the rapid development of information technology in the era of new technological revolution, supports the combination of innovative mechanisms and the application of scientific and technological achievements, opens up vast space for new manufacturing, new services and new consumption, thus better meeting the needs of the people for a better life.

The new infrastructure that is working on the technology side, under the specific background of the current impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, has practical significance for steady growth, stable employment, excellent structure, and tapping potential. The impact of the epidemic on the economy is still under observation. At present, there is a serious epidemic in the world. This is the worst scenario originally expected. It will definitely affect all major economies, and it will inevitably impact China’s 2020 economic growth target under the interaction of the global industrial chain. The “two sessions” (the National People’s Congress and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference (NPC & CPPCC)) held in the second quarter gives guidance on the annual economic growth target. The current discussion on how to set the economic growth target for this year must closely track and fully consider the economic situation.

According to the opinion of the author, in order to propose an appropriate growth target that is considered in overall, a global response plan should be prepared after a sharp change in the economic situation, drawing on the extraordinary measures that Premier Zhu Rongji decided to launch in 1998, issuing long-term construction treasury bonds and special treasury bonds, and launching large-scale investment projects led by the government to effectively expand the effective investment and financing. In addition to the new infrastructure and supporting government investment proposed now, the key is to have a good investment mechanism. In fact, the PPP model (Public-Private Partnership, which is the cooperation between the government and social capital, and an innovative model of project construction and operation in public infrastructure) promoted in previous years is a good basis for experimentation and innovative development. Although there are some problems in this process, it does not mean that this model has problems and should be halted. The government’s funds are limited, and the finances are already in a tight time, but the mobilized social funds are still considerable. It is imperative to expand effective investment and expand domestic demand with PPP innovation, thus getting twice the result with half the effort.

If investment performance can be more fully stimulated, this year’s GDP growth target can still maintain a growth rate of more than 5%. This year we will build a well-off society in an all-round way, and a growth rate of more than 5% can also be matched to basically achieve this goal.

If we stand on the ground and speed up the new infrastructure construction, it will help stabilize investment, expand domestic demand and solve the urgent need to alleviate the impact of the epidemic. Thus, it will not only achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, but also form backup to help across the mid-income trap after 2020. On one hand, the new infrastructure will help expand effective investment and financing, and while forming network construction investments, it will attract all industries in the national economy to increase capital investment in ICT projects. Taking 5G as an example, it is expected that from 2020 to 2025, it will directly boost the telecommunication operator’s network investment by 1.1 trillion Yuan and the vertical industry network and equipment investment by 0.47 trillion Yuan. On the other hand, it helps to expand and upgrade information consumption. Taking 5G again as an example, it is expected that from 2020 to 2025, 5G commercial use will drive 1.8 trillion Yuan of mobile data traffic consumption, 2 trillion Yuan of information service consumption, and 4.3 trillion Yuan of terminal consumption.

China’s per capita national income has reached 10,000 US dollars in 2019. According to the comparable calibre of the World Bank, this is already in the upper half of middle-income economies. For example, if our country can maintain a medium-to-high speed of economic growth in the next 5 to 8 years, national income per capita is expected to cross the threshold of US $ 13,000-14,000 and secure a high-income economy. However, from the point of view of global statistical phenomena, this breakthrough shows that in the first 70 years or so, the success rate was only one-tenth, which was a hurdle that most economies failed to successfully cross. For rising China pursuing modernization, it will also become a historic test. China has become a “world factory”. In case that China falls into the “sandwich” dilemma of failing in low-end competition with developing economies for their low labor costs or in high-end competition with developed economies for their high-tech, high value-added comparative advantages, China must carry out supply-side structural reform and achieve the high-quality development of replacing old power with new power and transforming growth modes.

From a long-term, accelerating the construction of the new infrastructure will build the key infrastructure in the era of digital economy, support the digital transformation of the economy and society, and achieve high-quality upgraded development. One is to lay a new foundation for the Internet of everything. The high-speed mobile internet of information networks is developing and penetrating into the traditional infrastructure, forming a new type of infrastructure with the interconnection of all things and data intelligence, realizing the flow of technology, capital, talents and materials driven by the flow of information, and optimizing the efficiency of resource allocation on a larger scale. Second, integration leads to develop new spaces. New infrastructure supports the vigorous development of the digital economy, promotes the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and contains huge potential for development. The calculation shows that the proportion of the digital economy in some developed countries has exceeded 50%, and the nominal growth of China’s digital economy in 2018 was 20.9%, far exceeding the growth rate of GDP in the same period, and its contribution rate to GDP growth reached 67.9%. The third is new kinetic energy created and driven by innovation. Taking new infrastructure construction as a carrier, a new generation of information technology will accelerate the cross integration with advanced manufacturing, new energy, new materials, and other technologies, triggering group and disruptive technological breakthroughs, and continue to inject strong momentum into economic growth. Fourth, transformation and upgrading achieve new changes. Looking back on history, railways, highways, power grids and other infrastructure have supported three industrial revolutions characterized by mechanization, electrification and automation respectively. New infrastructure will help the development of digitalization, networking and intelligence, promote the advancement of industrial structure and modernization of industrial system, and become a key support for the development of strategic emerging industries and a new round of industrial revolution.

Therefore, the new infrastructure is a very important strategic measure to promote and lead the overall development of high-quality national economy and form the backup of development to overcome the mid-income trap and achieve the “new two-step” modernization goal.

III. THE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE HAS ROOM FOR GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS IN CHINA

Overall, after the period of reform and opening up, China has grown from a backward large country with total economic output listing more than ten in the world and the per capita national income listing more than one hundred in the world rapidly into the second largest emerging market economy country with total economic output listing the second in the world and per capital national income reaching the upper half of mid-income economies (increased to over US $ 10,000 in 2019). However, it is objectively evaluated that China, which has become a “world factory” in the course of decades of vigorous development, has not yet possessed the high-end capabilities and cutting-edge level to lead the world trend of technological innovation. To move from “Made in China” to “Created in China”, we must bid farewell to the traditional extensive economic development mode and strive to open up the space where “technology – the first productive forces” exerts the multiplier effect, so that the development and application of digital technology at the forefront of the information revolution gradually rise to the leading role in the world. This is also the only way for China to further “peacefully rise”.

To support this kind of development with new infrastructure, there is room for great achievements in China.

—— If makes a general evaluation of China’s industrialization, it has only reached the stage of transition from the mid-term to the stage between mid-late period and the later period. The industrialization process will inevitably advance and accompany urbanization. Considering the “urbanization rate of household registration population” without debts only about 44%, then the real urbanization level is at most about 50%, and there is still room for rapid urbanization of about 20 percents in the future. If it rises by one percent a year, according to the international experience, it will take 20 years to reach the turning point of the rapid development stage of urbanization, which is above 70%.

—— Marketization and internationalization, which must be closely integrated with industrialization and urbanization, will forcefully continue to liberate productive forces and promote the continuous release of the potential for industrialization and urbanization. This is manifested in the continuous economic growth of catching-up in the next few decades.

—— In the current era of industrialization, urbanization, marketization, and internationalization, we must also plus the wings of high technology (that is, the so-called “information”). So in the ultra-conventional development that is catching up, China can no longer miss the historical opportunity of the new technology revolution. And in the process of building a modernized country following “new two-step” strategy, we have no choice but to make high-tech and economic and social development complement each other, integrate into one, and improve the quality of the entire national economy and improve the efficiency.

—— China’s high-tech industry, which was launched before the turn of the millennium and was strongly developed in the first two decades of the 21st century, is represented by a digital enterprise platform. It has formed a strong industrial cluster that attracts global attention, such as BAT + JD, Suning, Meituan, SF, Pinduoduo, etc., which rely on digital platforms. There are also large-scale S&T development benchmarking enterprise that has rushed to the forefront of the same industry in the world and has gone global, such as Huawei. Taking Tencent as an example, which is one of the fastest growing cloud computing vendors in the global market (the cloud computing service model - laaS), its total number of servers on the entire network has exceeded 1.1 million. It is the first company in China with the number of servers exceeding one million and also one of the five companies with more than one million servers in the world. It currently have several large self-built or co-built data center in Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guiyang and other places. In the past year, Tencent AI Lab explored two important problems in the field of artificial intelligence through [Ai + Game] and [Digital Man], and through artificial intelligence and multimodal research, made significant achievements in medical, agricultural, industrial, content, social, and so on. But we also need to recognize that, compared with the developed level and original ability of the “new economy” of developed economies in the world, the vast majority of Chinese enterprises are still in the stage of “following the trend” with learning and imitation as the main focus. Compared with “Silicon Valley” that is “leading the trend”, we urgently need to catch up. In the process of catching up, the large amount of infrastructure that should be matched by the new economy urgently needs to be formed with new infrastructure investment. The relatively complete industrial chain that China has formed in the past few decades, the quite strong supply capacity of raw materials, the supply of various types of equipment and the extensive cooperative relations with various economies in the world will provide all kinds of necessary elements for the new infrastructure to make great achievements.

IV. THE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE CLOSELY INTEGRATED WITH REFORM AND INNOVATION, MECHANISM INNOVATION, AND “INSTITUTIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE”

Some commentators have emphasized that system construction is the “new infrastructure” that China needs most. It should closely follow the optimization of the law, the rule by law and the governance mechanism, focusing on the original intention of the reform of “draining water and raising fish” and the spirit of the contract with Chinese characteristics of “one hundred years of unwavering”. Through the credible commitment of the rule by law, the private investment will be more confident, and entrepreneurs will become the leaders of the “new infrastructure” (Professor Zhao Jian of Xize Academy). It makes sense.

Looking at the new infrastructure and the “institutional infrastructure” in a comprehensive manner is by no means an exclusive relationship of “choosing one from the other”, but the two are obviously problems of different nature at different levels. The new infrastructure is an investment item that is directly related to productivity force in the field of material production, which creates scientific and technological leadership and support in economic and social development. “Institutional infrastructure” is directly related to production relations in the field of institutional rules, which are difficult reform tasks to deepen institutional arrangements by “self-revolution” in the deep-water zone. According to the cognition reached by the new supply economics, the latter relies on effective system supply to form institutional innovation to open up the potential space for technological innovation and management innovation, thus liberating the productivity. Therefore, compared with investment and construction activities, the latter is more profound and more decisive, which is the “key trick” and “maximum dividend” in promoting the modernization of China. However, reform is not an end in itself. Promoting the extraordinary development of China’s modernization to meet people’s needs for a better life is the purpose. Therefore, from the basic logical relationship of “grasping reform and promoting development”, in the process of liberating productive forces, high-quality development of the national economy supported by the new infrastructure and the building of a happy life for the people are the destination of hard work. In order to recognize this relationship and vigorously promote new infrastructure at this stage, of course, we must fully pay close attention to the combination of reform and mechanism innovation, overcome the resistance in reality to build a high-standard legal business environment, protect property rights, and cultivate a culture of contract integrity, reduce market access, encourage fair competition, substantially deepen the government’s “self-revolution”, guide and promote the win-win development of mixed ownership of enterprises and the full promotion of entrepreneurship, and vigorously promote the institutional innovation such as PPP (government and social capital cooperation). This is the “integration” advancement that the new infrastructure and “institutional infrastructure” should have.

V. IN THE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE, PRIVATE ENTERPRISES AND PPP SHOULD ALL PLAY THEIR ROLE

It should be pointed out that in the development of the “new economy” in China, private enterprises are the leader with the most outstanding performance. We need to admit that it is not accidental that BAT + JD, Suning, SF, etc. are positioned as digital platform companies to stand out on the Chinese land and affect the world in the “Internet +” type of information technology application innovation. In the tough process of such a high-tech digital technology company with the mission of “disruptive innovation” to overcome its development “bottleneck period” with large amounts of money, the success rate is extremely low, but once it breaks through, it may “fly soaring”. The mechanism characteristics of private enterprises make them generally superior to state-owned enterprises in terms of tolerance, decision-making characteristics, and sustainability under market test. Therefore, in this field, several enterprises have been turkeys in the hurricane and finally grown into giants. Almost all of them are private enterprises. In this respect, it has prompted us to further deepen our understanding of the status, role, characteristics, comparative advantages and development potential of private enterprises. On the other hand, it also allows us to learn clearly the nature of the “new infrastructure” and its natural connection with the further development of private enterprises, especially digital platform private enterprises. Informatization of the new economy in China has objectively formed a situation where private enterprises are the main market giants and thriving. The new infrastructure will greatly contribute to the upgrade and development of the informatization new economy, so the potential and vitality opened by this will be released, which will naturally expand more significantly for the BAT three giants and private enterprises such as JD, Suning, SF, Meituan, etc., and benefit the large number of upstream and downstream enterprises (both state-owned and private) that they connect with. In particular, a large number of small and micro enterprises (which are basically private enterprise components) have been more fully developed. The prospect of this kind of benefit for private enterprises is not one-sided. State-owned enterprises that have inextricably linked with private enterprises (including both the property rights bond formed during the mixed reform and business cooperation) will also benefit from the “new infrastructure”.

It should also be noted that the implementation of the new infrastructure has enabled private enterprises and state-owned enterprises as investors to enter the field of project construction, which is a place that should be highly valued. A large number of large-scale new infrastructure projects, from 5G, data center, artificial intelligence development center, the Internet of Things, etc., must be linked with “industrial Internet”, “smart city”, “food cold chain” and other large-scale, long-term projects, as well as the public engineering construction supporting them. The investment and financing requirements are huge. Under the constraints of responding to the impact of the global epidemic and the tight financial situation at all levels of the country (there must be “a tight day”), as the government’s financial resources are very limited, the new infrastructure will definitely require the government to use a small amount of financial resources to rely on innovation mechanisms such as PPP to form the “multiplier effect” of pulling and magnifying the external funds of the government, attracting domestic and foreign social capital and the financial power of the majority of enterprises, and forming partnerships to build together, which contains valuable opportunities for investment and development of enterprises. It is no denying that under the conditions of China’s national conditions, when new infrastructure in local jurisdictions is carried out by PPP, the government generally prefers state-owned enterprises, but the size of China, the number of projects and the length of the cycle determine that state-owned enterprises cannot carry out these projects. Many strong private enterprises will surely get the opportunity to be the main body of PPP development, as 40% of PPP projects in previous years will fall in private enterprises. This opportunity is actually right in front of us. Moreover, whether it is a state-owned enterprise or a private enterprise, after winning the SPV (specific purpose vehicle) dominance of a PPP project, many sub-projects, cooperative development projects, and business docking projects in the development of the project will provide both private enterprises and state-own enterprises with the cooperation opportunities.

In short, not only the achievements of the new infrastructure will benefit many private enterprises, but also from the beginning of the project construction, the new infrastructure has provided shared opportunities for state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign enterprises, which deserves the attention of local governments and the business community.

VI. LOCAL GOVERNMENTS MUST STRIVE TO CARRY OUT THE SUPPLY-SIDE REFORM IN THE JURISDICTION TO FORM A HIGH-LEVEL CUSTOMIZED PLAN IN AN UNUSUAL WAY

The local governments in different cities and in different jurisdictions, when conducting the “new infrastructure”, should not only grasp the consistency of implementing the spirit of the central government, but also fully consider the local conditions. In dealing with the commonality and characteristics, makes a difference in an unusual way. In fact, it is the true meaning of “supply-side structural reform” that the central government emphasizes to realize modern governance and build a modern economic system. At the stage of the “counter-cyclical” demand management, which originally emphasized the total amount, the decision-making in various regions followed more loose or tight macro-control of liquidity (money, financial resources). Although the handling of local structural issues cannot be avoided, it has not clearly grasped the guideline of the regulation and control concept. The supply-side reform as the main line today are more positively launched to form high-level customized solutions. It is the supply-side structural problems, including both overcoming the difficulties in the reform of deepening local institutional structure, and also industrial structure issues such as the layout of local productivity and the cultivation of industrial clusters, etc. as well as a series of issues in income distribution structure concerning the people’s livelihood and social management. Objectively, it is required to form a high-level customized overall solution like “one policy for one city” and “one policy for one region”. This set of systematic engineering “top-level planning” should provide an overview of the customized solutions (development strategy planning) concerning all the reform, development and stability issues in the jurisdiction. Whether it can stand the test of the history or not is an inevitable major issue that cannot be avoided in China’s local government competition, the basic essentials of which, according to the author, are to combine “effective market” and “promising limited government” to realize high-quality modernization development strategy from “catching up to catch-up”.

The situation varies greatly from place to place, and it is impossible to find a “universal model” to apply. When formulating local high-level customized solutions, we should actively attract the intellectual contributions of specialized talents and “introduce brain support”, that is, “purchase intellectual services” in the form of subject research, domestic and international expert demonstrations, etc. for our use.

At the same time, it should also be mentioned that the relationship between the new and old infrastructure needs to be handled well in the “customized solutions” that focus on the new infrastructure in various places. In many scenarios, the two types of conceptually distinguishable infrastructure must inevitably overlap and coordinate. Imagine that the local special bonds that have been accelerating the issuance progress and the funds available for the special national bonds that will be issued this year correspond to public projects and infrastructure, etc., these public projects and infrastructure are not necessarily all old infrastructure. Some new districts and growth pole regions may have already include new infrastructure in the original special projects. Then, after raising funds with special government bonds, more emphasis will be placed on the main new infrastructure project that supports high-quality development and upgraded development, but it cannot be said that it does not involve any old infrastructure next to it. These new infrastructure may be physically integrated with the traditional infrastructure next to them. For example, imagine that the construction of a set of hardware facilities that support 5G, which is emphasized by the central government, is concentrated in a new development zone. There are also data center and other artificial intelligence development center in the development zone. This is called the new infrastructure. However, once this development zone develops well, the surrounding real estate will also develop. These general supporting real estates, as well as bridges, road repairs, etc., are considered to be old infrastructures, but it cannot be denied that they have important and indispensable supporting role. So it is impossible to cut apart the funds and make clear the development issues. Special local bonds will only be used for old infrastructure, while special national bonds will only be used for new infrastructure. It is impossible to do so. New infrastructure investment may lead to follow-up of some projects in the surrounding area. The follow-up does not rule out the use of adjustments and combined use. Sometimes it is a platter project and sometimes a package project. These things generally form a certain point that there must be certain coordination and cooperation in each specific scenario, or even mutual penetration and integration. This will be the specific situation in reality.

REFERENCE

[1] Jia Kang, “New Supply-Side Economics: Eliminations And Establishments”, International Journal of Economics and Management Studies (IJEMS), May 2019.

[2] Jia Kang, Feng Qiaobin, “Rights-Ethics Public Goods: Based on the Expanded-Definition of Public Goods”, International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Volume 6 Issue 8, 2019.

[3] Jia Kang, “Analysis on Ternary Paradox of Fiscal Distribution: Theory and Mitigation Methods”, Journal of Economics and Management Studies (IJEMS), Volume 6, Issue 11, 2019.
[4] Jia Kang, “Development of Chinese Public Finance Discipline in the Past 70 Years: Review and Prospects”, Journal of Economics and Management Studies (IJEMS), Volume 6, Issue 12, 2019.
[5] Jia Kang, “Eight Imperatives to be done by Finance in Serving the Wider Economy”, Journal of Economics and Management Studies (IJEMS), Volume 7, Issue 2, 2020.

以下是中文版本：

新基建：既是当务之急，又是长远支撑

贾康

引言

在国内疫情和国际金融动荡、市场低迷的双重冲击之下，2020年中国经济面临的压力超乎寻常。特殊之年的非常之时，需要有非常举措，应当客观全面理解各方瞩目的“新基建”作为当务之急的重大意义；同时，新基建又是为我国引领经济新常态、实现高质量发展提供发展后劲，形成长久支撑的中长期战略选项。

在我国稳中求进、奋战新冠肺炎疫情并力求实现高质量升级版发展的过程之中，新基建的重要意义正在不断凸显。2018年12月中央经济工作会议，对于促进“新型基础设施建设”（简称“新基建”）作出重要指导，与5G商用、人工智能相关的基础设施建设和工业互联网、物联网等，被定为新基建的具体内容。2019年7月，中央政治局会议明确要求稳定制造业投资，在实施城镇老旧小区改造、城市停车场、城乡冷链物流设施建设等补短板工程建设的同时，加快推进信息网络等新基建。2020年初在新冠肺炎疫情形成严重冲击的局面下，为克服困难，开创新局面，2月的中央政治局会议和3月的政治局常委会，在进一步强调加快新基建时，又明确地增加了其中“数据中心”的建设内容，而且特别指出“要注重调动民间投资积极性。”

“新基建”不是“4万亿”等投资举措的重复，这次的“新基建”强调的是与新经济、新技术发展前沿——数字化信息技术的开发与运用紧密结合的基础设施建设，也会吸取上两轮抵御亚洲金融危机和世界金融危机期间的投资经验；在资金来源上，政府债务资金、产业引导基金等会跟ppp等机制创新相结合，注重新的投融资模式。

“新基建”支持“战疫情”、打造“新经济”，推动国民经济高质量发展全局

新基建的特点和与传统基建的差别主要在何处？一言以蔽之，在于其与新技术革命前沿——科技生态升级之中数字化信息技术的开发和运用紧密结合在一起，是在高科技端发力而支撑“数字经济”发展和国民经济全局。从经济理论视角解读这种“新基建”的功能作用，其是从经济发展的条件建设切入，形成新技术革命时代信息技术日新月异发展形势下由相关硬件、软件合成的有效供给能力，支持诸多的创新机制与科技成果应用的结合，为新制造、新服务、新消费打开广阔的空间，更好地满足人民群众美好生活的需要。

发力于科技端的“新基建”，在当前新冠肺炎疫情冲击的特定背景下，对于稳增长、稳就业、优结构、挖潜力的现实意义，更是十分明显。疫情对经济的影响还在观察中。目前全球都出现了严重疫情，这是原预想中最坏的一种情况，一定会影响到各主要经济体，也必然在全球产业链互动互制中冲击中国2020年经济增长目标的设定。在二季度召开的“两会”，要给出年度的引导性经济增长目标，目前对于今年经济增长目标如何设定的研讨，必须紧密地跟踪经济态势，全面考量。

我认为，为了提出一个全盘考虑的适当增长目标，应该做好经济态势出现急剧变化后的全局应对方案，借鉴1998年朱镕基总理下决心推出的非常举措，发行长期建设国债、特别国债，启动大规模由政府牵头的投资项目，有力度地扩大有效投融资。除了现在提出的“新基建”和配套的政府投资外，关键是要有好的投资机制，其实前几年推进的PPP模式（Public-PrivatePartnership，即政府和社会资本合作，是公共基础设施中的一种项目建设与运营的创新模式）就是很好的尝试和创新发展的基础，虽然这个过程中也出现了一些问题，但决不代表这种模式自身有问题而要被“叫停”。政府的资金是有限的，财政已在过紧日子，但是可调动的社会资金还是相当可观的，以PPP创新而“四两拨千斤”地、绩效升级地扩大有效投资和扩大内需，势在必行。

如果投资绩效可以被较充分地激发出来，今年全年的GDP增长目标仍然能够保持在5%以上的增速。今年要全面建成小康社会，5%以上的增速也可以配合基本实现这一目标。

如果立足当下加快新基础建，将助力稳投资、扩内需，解疫情冲击下的燃眉之急，不但要实现决胜全面建成小康社会目标，并且要形成发展后劲，助力2020年后的跨越“中等收入陷阱”。新基建在一方面，有助于扩大有效投融资，在形成网络建设投资的同时，吸引国民经济各行业加大信息通信技术项目的资本投入。以5G为例，预计2020-2025年可直接拉动电信运营商网络投资1.1万亿元，拉动垂直行业网络和设备投资0.47万亿元。在另一方面，有助于扩大和升级信息消费。同样以5G为例，预计2020-2025年，5G商用将带动1.8万亿元的移动数据流量消费、2万亿元的信息服务消费和4.3万亿元的终端消费。

中国的人均国民收入，在2019年已达到一万美元水平，按照世界银行可比口径，这已是在中等收入经济体的上半区。如我国未来5年至8年仍可保持经济增长的中高速，人均国民收入有望冲过1.3-1.4万美元的门槛而坐稳高收入经济体的交椅。但这个“冲关”从全球统计现象来看，前面70年左右时间段上，成功率仅有十分之一，是绝大多数经济体未能成功跨越的一道大坎，对于追求现代化“和平崛起”的中国，这也将成为一个历史性的考验。为使我国在已成为“世界工厂”的发展基础上，避免出现情况变化中低端竞争不过发展中经济体的低劳动成本，高端竞争不过发达经济体的高科技、高附加值比较优势的“夹心”窘境，必须力行供给侧结构性改革，实现新旧动力转换、增长方式转型的高质量发展。

着眼长远，加快新基建将以构建数字经济时代的关键基础设施，支撑经济社会数字化转型，实现高质量升级发展。一是为万物互联奠定新基础。信息网络高速移动互联正在发展并向传统基础设施渗透延伸，形成万物互联、数据智能的新型基础设施，实现以信息流带动技术流、资金流、人才流、物资流，在更大范围优化资源配置提升效率。二是融合引领拓展新空间。新型基础设施支撑数字经济的蓬勃发展，推动数字经济和实体经济深度融合，蕴涵巨大的发展潜力。测算表明，部分发达国家数字经济比重已经超过50%；我国数字经济2018年名义增长20.9%，远超同期GDP增速，对GDP增长的贡献率达到67.9%。三是创新驱动打造新动能。以新型基础设施建设为载体，新一代信息技术将加快与先进制造、新能源、新材料等技术交叉融合，引发群体性、颠覆性技术突破，为经济增长持续注入强劲动能。四是转型升级实现新变革。回顾历史，铁路、公路、电网等基础设施支撑了分别以机械化、电气化、自动化为特征的三次工业革命，新型基础设施则将助力数字化、网络化、智能化发展，推动产业结构高端化和产业体系现代化，成为战略性新兴产业发展和新一轮工业革命的关键依托。

所以，新基建是以“新经济”推动和引领国民经济高质量发展全局、形成发展后劲跨越中等收入陷阱而达成“新的两步走”现代化目标的极为重大的战略举措。

新基建在中国具备大有作为的空间

中国总体而言经过改革开放时期，已从一个经济总量排在世界十余位、人均国民收入排在世界一百多位的落后大国，迅速发展成为经济总量世界第二、人均国民收入达到中等收入经济体上半区（2019年升高至1万美元以上）的新兴市场经济国家。但客观地评价，几十年高歌猛进的发展过程中已成“世界工厂”的中国，还未能具备引领科技创新世界潮流的高端能力和前沿水平，要想从“中国制造”向“中国创造”、“中国智造”的新境界接近，必须义无反顾地告别传统的粗放型经济发展方式，奋力打开“科技第一生产力”发挥乘数效应的空间，使信息革命前沿的数字科技的开发和运用，逐步上升到世界领先状态。这也是中国进一步“和平崛起”的必由之路。

以新基建支持这种发展，我国具备大有作为的空间：

——如对中国的工业化作总体评价，还只是走到了从中期向中后期与后期转变的阶段；工业化进程必然推进和伴随的城镇化，考虑到无欠账的“户籍人口城镇化率”才仅为44%左右，那么真实城镇化水平充其量在50%上下，未来还有20个百分点左右的城镇化快速上升空间，一年上升一个百分点，也要走二十年才达到国际经验表明的告别城镇化高速发展阶段的拐点70%以上。

——与工业化、城镇化必须紧密结合为一体的市场化、国际化，将强有力地继续解放生产力，推进工业化、城镇化潜力空间的不断释放，表现为中今后数十年内国不断追赶、志在赶超的经济成长性。

——现今时代的工业化、城镇化、市场化、国际化，还必须插上高科技化（即人们所说“信息化”）的翅膀，那么在急起直追的超常规发展中，中国再也不可错失新技术革命的历史机遇，在建成现代化的未来“新的两步走”战略推进过程中，我们别无选择地必须使高科技化与经济社会发展相辅相成，融为一体，使整个国民经济提质增效。

——千年之交前已启动、在21世纪前20年得到强劲发展的中国高科技产业，以数字化企业平台为代表，已形成令全球瞩目的强势产业集群，如依托数字化平台的BAT+京东、苏宁、美团、顺丰、拼多多等，还出现了华为这样冲到世界同行业最前线、已走向全球的科技开发型大规模标杆企业。以腾讯公司为例，其作为全球（云计算服务模式之一的laaS）市场增长最快的云计算厂商之一，目前全网服务器总量已经超过110万台，是中国首家服务器总量超过百万的公司，也是全球五家服务器数量过百万的公司之一；目前已在天津、上海、深圳、贵阳等地拥有数座大型自建或合建数据中心；在过去的一年里，腾讯AI Lab通过[Ai+游戏]与[数字人]探索了人工智能领域两大重要难题：通过人工智能和多模态研究，并取得了显著的进步，在医疗、农业、工业、内容、社交等领域都形成了颇有价值的应用成果。但我们也需承认，比照世界上发达经济体的“新经济”发达水平和原创能力，中国绝大多数企业还处于以学习、模仿为主的“跟上潮流”的阶段，比起“硅谷”的“引领潮流”，我们亟需奋起直追。而这一追赶过程中，新经济所应匹配的大量基础设施，就亟需以新基建投资来形成。中国几十年间已形成的较完整的产业链、相当雄厚的原材料和各类设备的供给能力、与全球各经济体十分广泛的合作关系，都将为新基建在本土的大有作为，提供各类必要的配套因素。

新基建必须紧密结合改革攻坚、机制创新，与“制度基建”一体化

已有论者强调：制度建设是中国最需要的“新基建”，应紧扣法律、法治和治理机制的优化，重点放在“放水养鱼”的改革初心与“一百年不动摇”的中国特色契约精神之上，通过法治的可置信承诺，让民间投资更有信心，让企业家成为“新基建”的主导（西泽研究院赵建教授网文）。这是很有道理的。

全面地看新基建与“制度基建”，绝非“二选一”的排斥关系，但二者又明显是不同性质、不同层次的问题。新基建是物质生产领域里与生产力直接相关、打造经济社会发展中科技引领力、支撑力的投资事项，“制度基建”是制度规则领域里与生产关系直接相关、深化制度安排“自我革命”于深水区攻坚克难的改革任务。按照新供给经济学达成的认知，后者是以有效制度供给，形成以制度创新打开科技创新与管理创新潜力空间的生产力解放，所以与投资建设活动相比较，其更为深刻和更为具有决定性意义，是推进中国现代化的“关键一招”和“最大红利”之所在。然而，改革就其本身而言还不是目的，促进中国现代化的超常规发展满足人民美好生活需要才是目的之所在，所以从这种“抓改革，促发展”的基本逻辑关系来说，在改革解放生产力进程中，更好地以新基建支持的国民经济高质量发展和构建人民幸福生活，才是努力奋斗的归宿。

认清这种关系，现阶段大力促进新基建，当然要充分注重紧密结合改革与机制创新“啃硬骨头”，克服现实中的阻力构建高标准法治化营商环境，切实保护产权，培育契约诚信文化，降低市场准入，鼓励公平竞争，实质性深化政府“自我革命”，引导和推进企业混合所有制的共赢发展和企业家精神的充分弘扬，也要大力推进PPP（政府与社会资本合作）等机制创新。这是新基建和“制度基建”应有的“一体化”推进。

新基建中，民营企业和PPP颇有用武之地

应当指出，“新经济”在中国的发展中，民营企业是冲锋陷阵而战绩最为卓越的领军者。我们需要承认，在“互联网+”式的信息技术应用创新中，BAT+京东、苏宁、顺丰等以数字化平台公司定位而在中国土地上脱颖而出、异军突起并影响世界，并不是偶然的。在这类有“颠覆性创新”使命的高新数字科技公司为冲过其发展“瓶颈期”而“烧钱”的艰难过程中，成功率极低，但一旦冲关成功，便可能“一飞冲天”。民企的机制特点，使它们在耐受力、决策特点、市场考验下的可持续性等方面，一般都优于国企，所以在这一领域，终于有几家企业成为“风口上的猪”而扶摇直上成长为巨头，而它们几乎清一色均为民企。这一方面，促使我们进一步深化认识民企的地位、作用、特色、相对优势和发展潜力，另一方面，也可使我们看清“新基建”与民企、特别是数字化平台型民企进一步发展的天然联系：信息化新经济在中国，已客观地形成以民企为主要市场巨头而蓬勃发展的局面，新基建将极大地助力于信息化新经济的升级发展，那么由此而打开的潜力、活力释放空间，自然会为BAT三巨头和京东、苏宁、顺丰、美团……等民企而更显著地展开，并助益于它们所联系的上、下游广大的企业（既包括国企和包括民企），特别是为数众多的小微企业（其中基本为民企成分），得到更充分的发展。民企的这种获益前景不是单方的，与民企已有千丝万缕的联系（既包括混改中形成的产权纽带联系，也包括业务合作联系）的国企，也一定会从“新基建”中获益。

还应看到，新基建的实施，更为民企、国企以投资者身份进入项目建设领域，提供了值得高度重视的用武之地：为数不少、规模浩大的新基建项目，从5G、数据中心、人工智能开发中心、物联网等，要一直对接“产业互联网”、“智慧城市”、“食物冷链”等大型、长周期项目，以及与它们相配套的公共工程建设，投融资要求巨大，那么在应对全球疫情冲击、国家各级财政吃紧（必须“过紧日子”）因而政府财力十分有限的制约情况之下，新基建一定是会要求政府以小部分财力“四两拨千斤”地借助PPP等创新机制，形成政府体外资金的拉动、放大的“乘数效应”，吸引国内外社会资本、广大企业的资金力量，形成伙伴关系来共同建设，其中蕴含着难得的企业投资发展机遇。无庸讳言，在中国国情条件下，当地方辖区内的新基建以PPP方式进行时，政府方一般首选的是国企，但中国之大，项目之多，周期之长，决定了国企肯定对这些项目是“吃不完”的，许多有实力的民企，一定会像前些年PPP项目40%以上会落于民企那样，得到做PPP开发主体的机会——这一大块“用武之地”其实就在眼前。而且，不论是国企还是民企，拿下了某个PPP项目的SPV（特定项目公司）主导权之后，该项目展开中的不少子项目、合作开发项目、业务对接项目，都会既对国企也对广大民企打开合作之门。

总之，不仅新基建的成果会使许多民企受益，而且新基建还从项目建设开端，就提供了国企、民企、外企可共享的用武之地，值得地方政府和企业界关注。

地方政府必须“守正出奇”：力求辖区供给侧改革形成高水平定制化方案

不同城市、不同地方政府辖区发力“新基建”，既要掌握贯彻中央精神的一致性，又要充分考虑各地“因地制宜”、“因城施策”的差异性，力求在共性与特性正确结合的处理中，“守正出奇”地有所作为。其实，这正是中央所强调的实现现代化治理和打造现代化经济体系的主线——“供给侧结构性改革”的真谛。在原来强调总量为主的“反周期”需求管理的阶段上，各地决策更多是跟着流动性（银根、财力）松或紧的宏观调控走，本地结构性问题的处理虽然不容回避，但并未清晰地总结到纲领性的调控理念上，而现今作为主线的供给侧改革，更多正面展开而要形成高水平定制化解决方案的，是供给侧结构性问题，既包括当地深化改革要“啃硬骨头”的制度结构问题，也包括当地生产力布局、产业集群培育等产业结构问题，以及一系列涉及民生、社会管理的收入分配的结构等问题，客观上要求“一城一策”、“一地一策”地形成高水平定制化的通盘解决方案。这一套系统工程式、“顶层规划”式要一览无遗覆盖本辖区所有改革、发展、稳定事项的定制化解决方案（发展战略规划）水平如何，能否在历史性检验过程中交出高分答卷，是必然延续的中国“地方政府竞争”中无法回避的重大事项，其中的基本要领，我认为是把“有效市场”与“有为、有限政府”成功结合的“守正出奇”，以实现超常规高质量“追赶——赶超”现代化发展战略。

各地情况千差万别，不可能找到一个“通用模式”来套用。制定本地的高水平定制化解决方案，应积极吸引专门人才的智力贡献，“引入头脑支援”，即以课题研究、国内国际专家论证等方式“购买智力服务”为我所用。

同时还应提到，在各地注重以新基建为重要内容的“定制化解决方案”中，新基建、老基建的关系需处理好。在不少场景下，概念上可区分的这两类基建必然发生重叠和协调呼应的问题。试想，已在加快发行进度的地方专项债和今年将发行的特别国债可用资金，对应的项目都是公共工程、基础设施等等，但如说这些公共工程、基础设施里，完全是旧基建那可未必，有些新区、增长极区域，已经在原专项强项目上就包含着新基建的内容了。那么在特别国债筹集资金以后，更多的重点，会放在主打新基建这个支持我们高质量发展、升级发展的投资事项上，但也不能说它一点就不涉及到旁边的一些什么老基建，因为这些新基建可能在物理形态上跟旁边的传统基建是打成一片的。比如我们设想，中央强调的支持5G的这样一套硬件设施的建设，它集中在一个新的开发区，这里面还有数据中心，还有其他的人工智能开发中心等等，这都叫新基建，但是这个开发区它一旦成了气候，周边的房地产是不是会顺应着进入一个跟着发展的向上的发展过程？这个一般配套的这些房地产，以及架桥、修路等等，被人认为是老基建，却不能否定它们有其重要的不可缺失的配套作用，那么资金上不可能截然划开说，我们要做的这些发展事项一刀两断，专项地方债就只做老基建，特别国债就只做新基建，做不到这样截然分明。新基建投资可能会带动着周边的一些项目跟进，跟进的时候也不排除调剂使用、结合使用，有的时候是拼盘项目，有的时候是打包项目，这些事情总体来说是形成一定的重点，在各个具体的场景下需要有它们一定的协调配合，甚至是相互渗透，相互融合，这将是实际生活中间要发生的具体情况。

贾 康 介 绍

第十一届、十二届全国政协委员和政协经济委员会委员，华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家，中国财政科学研究院研究员、博导，中国财政学会顾问，国家发改委PPP专家库专家委员会成员，中国一带一路PPP项目开发委员会委员，中关村公共资源竞争性配置促进中心首席经济学家，北京市、上海市等多地人民政府咨询委员，北京大学、中国人民大学等多家高校特聘教授。1995年享受政府特殊津贴。1997年被评为国家百千万人才工程高层次学术带头人。多次受朱镕基、温家宝、胡锦涛和李克强等中央领导同志之邀座谈经济工作（被媒体称之为“中南海问策”）。担任2010年1月8日中央政治局第十八次集体学习“财税体制改革”专题讲解人之一。孙冶方经济学奖、黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖和中国软科学大奖获得者。国家“十一五”、“十二五”和“十三五”规划专家委员会委员。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。1988年曾入选亨氏基金项目，到美国匹兹堡大学做访问学者一年。2013年，主编《新供给：经济学理论的中国创新》，发起成立“华夏新供给经济学研究院”和“新供给经济学50人论坛”（任首任院长、首任秘书长），2015年-2016年与苏京春合著出版《新供给经济学》专著、《供给侧改革：新供给简明读本》、以及《中国的坎：如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”（获评中国图书评论学会和央视的“2016年度中国好书”）》，2016年出版的《供给侧改革十讲》被中组部、新闻出版广电总局和国家图书馆评为全国精品教材。根据《中国社会科学评估》公布的2006～2015年我国哲学社会科学6268种学术期刊700余万篇文献的大数据统计分析，贾康先生的发文量（398篇），总被引频次（4231次）和总下载频次（204115次）均列第一位，综合指数3429，遥居第一，是经济学核心作者中的代表性学者。

贾康学术平台| 版权属贾康先生，转载请注明“贾康学术平台”，感谢关注与支持！

做学问的甘苦，如鱼在水，冷暖自知，不足为外人道，但关于做学问的“指导思想”，我愿意在此一披襟怀：写出一些论文或著作并不是目的，这是探索之途上的一小步，是争取为人类的思想认识之海中加一滴水。我深信，一切人生的虚荣浮华都是过眼烟云，而真正的学术和真知灼见，才能垂诸久远。

—— 贾 康