专访高志凯：俄乌冲突不是新世界秩序的开始

导读

俄乌冲突爆发以来，全球化智库副主任高志凯先生多次接受国内外媒体采访，他对地区问题的精彩解读刷屏网络。近日，他做客中国日报《连线》栏目，进一步分享了他对俄乌冲突的深度思考。戳视频看全程↓

俄乌双方应尽快恢复和平

Q:It seems like China, despite not being directly involved in this conflict, has been put under the spotlight by Western media outlets. Why do you think they are doing this?

中国虽然不是俄乌冲突的参与者，却在这场危机中被西方媒体置于聚光灯下，您认为他们为何如此关注中国？

A:There are several points. One is that China is a big country. China is a country with big impact, and its influence stretches out to all corners of life.

这主要有几点原因：第一，中国是个大国，其影响力涉及生活的方方面面。

And in the war in Ukraine, China has very strong, close strategic relations with Russia on the one hand, China also has very good and friendly relations with Ukraine. Therefore, I think China, while with no vested interest in this war itself, does have a big vested interest in promoting peace in Ukraine.

第二，在这场冲突中，中国既与俄罗斯有坚实的战略关系，也与乌克兰有着非常友好的联系。中国在这场战争中没有既得利益，反而区域和平更符合中国的利益。

I think China, given its size, impact and impartiality and good relations with Russia, as well as with Ukraine, and its status as one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council will be a very influential party if it is engaged in mediation.

第三，中国是联合国安理会常任理事国之一，在俄乌之间又有着公正的立场，如果加入调停，可以成为关键的调解力量之一。

However, if your dig deeper, you will see it's actually a war between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine, and whoever that's behind it, the United States or NATO member states, etc.

但当我们看向问题本质，会发现这不仅仅是一场俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的冲突，也是俄罗斯和乌克兰背后势力的冲突。美国和其他北约国家都参与其中。

So eventually, I think diplomacy and negotiation will need to bring all these parties together, so that they will consent to some big countries playing the role of a mediator and try to bring the war to an end and restore peace with the aim of minimizing civilian loss of life in Ukraine. This is of paramount importance and urgency right now.

所以说到底，在此问题中的外交和谈判需要囊括所有参与者，以便大家同意第三方大国进行调解。目前最紧迫的任务，是让俄乌双方尽快恢复和平，最小化平民伤亡。

北约东扩是新世纪的古巴导弹危机

Q:You said the fundamental cause of this crisis was because of a potential admission for Ukraine to NATO. And that had made Russia feel their security being threatened. Why do you think NATO keeps expanding over the past few decades despite Russia’s opposition being very clear?

您曾说俄乌冲突的根源是北约东扩对俄罗斯造成了安全威胁，为什么北约要在俄罗斯明确反对的情况下持续扩张呢？

A:NATO was created during the Cold War as a defense organization against the former Soviet Union. It has already served its historical purpose. Since 1991, the US government has confided to Russia on many occasions that they would not support the continued expansion of NATO into the East, closer to Russia. This is well documented.

北约成立于冷战时期，作为一个对抗苏联的防御性组织，其使命早已完成。自1991年来，美国曾多次表示北约不会东扩。这是有明确记录的。

However, we know that ever since 1991, NATO expanded five times, recruiting more and more member states into NATO. And eventually, for example, from the Russian perspective, they are surrounded by NATO member states. And they believe that the continued expansion of NATO is in violation of the US commitment to Russia.

但我们都知道，1991年后北约进行了五次东扩。越来越多的国家加入北约，这让俄罗斯感到不安。在他们看来，这是美国对其承诺的背弃。

Now, many people in the West probably will refuse to listen to this. They say, well, Ukraine is an independent country. Ukraine is entitled to do whatever is allowed of Ukraine.

很多西方观众可能拒绝这样的说法，认为乌克兰作为主权国家可以选择加入任何国际组织。

Yes and no.

对也不对。

Allow me to remind all of us that back in 1962, when the former Soviet Union, which absolutely was a sovereign country at the time, decided to deploy missiles in Cuba, which was, again, absolutely, undoubtedly a sovereign country. Why should the United States and President Kennedy jump out of the seat and strongly and vehemently opposed that?

我们可以回看1962年的古巴导弹危机。古巴和前苏联都是独立的主权国家，但为什么时任美国总统肯尼迪对前苏联在古巴部署导弹大为震怒呢？

And why President Kennedy has been ranked one of the greatest presidents in US history? Because he refused to give in. He stood firm on his ground. President Putin of Russia today probably looks at this so-called NATO membership for Ukraine very similarly, if not identically, as what President Kennedy saw the proposed Soviet deployment of missiles in Cuba.

肯尼迪被认为是美国历史上最伟大的总统之一，正是因为他维护了美国的战略安全。当俄罗斯总统普京看到北约不断东扩，可能正如当年肯尼迪看到前苏联在古巴部署导弹一样。

We should recall what President Kennedy did to the proposed Soviet deployment of missiles in Cuba in 1962 to use the same kind of analysis to analyze the so-called NATO membership for Ukraine.

我们应该用这样的角度去分析北约扩张的情况。

俄乌冲突不是新世界秩序开始

Q:Looking into the future, how do you see the future political and economic order in the world after the conflict has been resolved?

展望未来，您认为俄乌冲突结束后世界政治经济秩序将发生怎样的变化？

A:There are quite a few countries in the world who claim that the war in Ukraine is the beginning of a new international order. I actually do not agree with that.

目前世界上有些国家声称俄乌冲突将带来全新的世界秩序。我并不同意这一观点。

I think we are still living in the international order created in the dust of WWII. China wants to see multilateralism centering around the United Nations. China has a big interest in living in this international order. And we want to defend the international order that's still prevailing in the world.

我认为我们仍生活在第二次世界大战结束后的国际秩序当中。中国希望看到以联合国为中心的多边主义秩序。 中国是该秩序的受益者，也是该秩序的坚定维护者。

What China is opposed to is any country which wants to dictate the terms for the whole world. Any country which wants to monopolize power in the world. This is not the true essence of international order that we are living through.

中国反对任何国家妄图支配世界、垄断国际秩序解释权的企图。这不是现行国际秩序的实质。

Read the United Nations Charter, read the importance of respecting all countries, big and small in the world. China wants to see multilateralism centering around the United Nations, with all countries being equal, all countries can have their say on any international issues.

翻开联合国宪章，上面写明了尊重所有国家的重要性。中国希望看到以联合国为中心的多边主义秩序，即所有国家平等相处、所有国家对任何国际事务都有发言权。

No country has a monopoly on truth. No country has a monopoly on democracy. And no country can really hold itself out as a true representative of the whole world.

没有国家可以垄断真理，没有国家可以垄断民主，没有国家可以代表整个世界。

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出品人：柯荣谊

制片：张少伟 黄恬恬

校对：周星佐 沈一鸣

记者：张欣然 史雪凡 孟哲

实习生：钱昕瑀 林瑜景 王博麟