y Jia Kang | China Daily Updated: Dec 22, 2022
China's economy is highly resilient and still has great potential thanks to its strong economic fundamentals. Hence, the Chinese economy is expected to grow in the long run.
But in order to realize national modernization, China has to synchronize its economic development with civilizational development. This will help facilitate China's industrialization, urbanization, informatization as well as social development.
Despite China being the world's largest manufacturing power, some of its industries are not that competitive. As such China needs to upgrade its manufacturing sector — by elevating its goods and services from "Made in China" to "Created in China" — and pursue intelligent manufacturing.
Looking ahead, any further development related to China's manufacturing will be in accordance with the country's urbanization. Judging by international experience, a country enters the stage of modernization once its urbanization rate crosses 70 percent. In China's case, however, the permanent urban population across the country accounts for only about 45 percent of the total population. And if the rate of urbanization increases by 1 percentage point per year, China will need to ensure steady economic development for more than 15 years to basically achieve modernization.
In the long term, strong and diversified supply and demand chains will ensure China's sustainable development and help integrate industrialization and urbanization. As urban built-up areas in the country continue to expand, the increase in urban-rural fringe areas will necessitate the creation of many new districts. The infrastructure in the existing central business districts and the to-be-created new districts will require improved connectivity, for which skilled talents, industrial upgrading and integration would be needed.
Although the supply and demand chains face risks and uncertainties, they still reflect the high potential of China's economy. Yet China needs to deepen reform and widen opening-up, create a high-quality, law-based business environment, and establish a national unified market in which all entities' rights are protected, and unfair competition and monopoly are eliminated. Efforts should also be made to integrate urban and rural development, as well as address the problems caused by the different administrative systems in rural and urban areas.
While foreign enterprises can benefit from the shortening of the Negative List, the local governments should work to strengthen and optimize their management to develop favorable conditions for enterprises, and promote high-quality business.
There is also a need to ensure direct financing in the multi-layered capital and financial market, so big companies as well as small and medium-sized enterprises can realize mutual benefit.
And now that China's real estate sector is past its golden age, the property market is likely to face more uncertainties and challenges — there is even a chance of the real estate market dipping further. True, the real estate market is relatively stable, but the journey to recovery will take time.
Fiscal sustainability is another major concern for China. The separation of central and local governments' fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities has benefited all sides in recent years. Also, the clear division of responsibilities between them has ensured that they properly exercise their fiscal powers. For example, the central and local authorities have been working together to provide public goods such as healthcare, transportation and compulsory education for the people in accordance with regulations.
There is no denying that some regions face financial constraints due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the country is confident of overcoming the challenges thanks to the valuable experience it has accumulated in the more than four decades since the launch of reform and opening-up.
Therefore, there is enough reason to believe China's economy will recover faster than expected and continue to grow in the post-pandemic era despite facing higher risks and more complicated challenges.
The author is chief economist of the China Academy of New Supply Side Economics.
贾 康 简 介
第十一届、十二届全国政协委员、现任全国政协参政议政人才库特聘专家,华夏新供给经济学研究院创始院长,中国财政科学研究院研究员、博导。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。北京、上海、福建、安徽、甘肃、广西、西藏等地方政府特聘专家、顾问或咨询委员,北京大学、中国人民大学、国家行政学院、中央社会主义学院、南开大学、武汉大学、厦门大学、安徽大学等多所高校特聘教授。1988年曾入选亨氏基金项目,到美国匹兹堡大学做访问学者一年。1995年享受国务院政府特殊津贴。1997年被评为国家百千万人才工程高层次学术带头人。多次受党和国家领导同志之邀座谈经济工作。担任2010年1月8日中央政治局第十八次集体学习“财税体制改革”专题讲解人之一。孙冶方经济学奖、黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖和中国软科学大奖获得者。国家“十一五”、“十二五”、“十三五”规划专家委员会委员、国家发改委PPP专家库专家委员会成员。2013年,主编《新供给:经济学理论的中国创新》,发起成立“华夏新供给经济学研究院”和“新供给经济学50人论坛”(任首任院长、首任秘书长,第二届理事会期间任首席经济学家),2015年-2016年与苏京春合著出版《新供给经济学》、《供给侧改革:新供给简明读本》以及《中国的坎:如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”(获评中国图书评论学会和央视的“2016年度中国好书”)》,2016年出版的《供给侧改革十讲》被中组部、新闻出版广电总局和国家图书馆评为全国精品教材。2017-2020年又撰写出版《供给侧结构性改革理论模型与实践路径》、《供给侧改革主线上的未来财税》、《财政学通论》等多部专著。2021年与刘薇合作《双循环新发展格局》一书又获评“2021年度中国好书”。根据《中国社会科学评估》公布的2006~2015年我国哲学社会科学6268种学术期刊700余万篇文献的大统计分析,贾康先生的发文量(398篇),总被引频次(4231次)和总下载频次(204115次)均列第一位,综合指数3429,遥居第一,是经济学核心作者中的代表性学者。
贾康学术平台| 版权属贾康先生,转载请注明“贾康学术平台”,感谢关注与支持!
做学问的甘苦,如鱼在水,冷暖自知,不足为外人道,但关于做学问的“指导思想”,我愿意在此一披襟怀:写出一些论文或著作并不是目的,这是探索之途上的一小步,是争取为人类的思想认识之海中加一滴水。我深信,一切人生的虚荣浮华都是过眼烟云,而真正的学术和真知灼见,才能垂诸久远。
—— 贾 康
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