Chinese NEV Sales in Europe Decline in First Month After EU's New Tariffs

AsianFin--Chinese brands registered fewer than 14,000 electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe in July, a sharp decline from over 23,000 in June, a 9.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, according to Jato Dynamics. This comes as the EU imposed new tariffs on Chinese NEV imports last month.

Breaking down the numbers by brand, SAIC's MG brand experienced the largest decline. MG sold 5,330 electric vehicles in Europe in July, down 38% from the previous year. The brand's cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2024 reached 50,120 vehicles, a 13% year-on-year decrease. Despite the drop, MG remains the best-selling Chinese brand in Europe.

MG saw an even steeper month-on-month decline of 60% compared to June when it delivered over 13,000 electric vehicles to European dealers just before the tariffs took effect.

In contrast, BYD managed to buck the trend. The company sold 3,740 electric vehicles in Europe in July, doubling its sales compared to last year. Its cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2024 reached 20,750 vehicles, a 327% increase year-on-year. However, BYD still saw a 5.5% month-on-month decline from June.

Other Chinese brands record lower sales volumes in Europe.

Xpeng Motors delivered 578 vehicles in Europe in July, up 335% year-on-year, and its cumulative deliveries for the year grew 1,432% to 2,818 vehicles. Great Wall Motors sold 292 vehicles in Europe in July, a 9% decrease compared to last year, but its cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2024 reached 2,382 vehicles, up 77% year-on-year.

NIO registered 156 electric vehicles in Europe in July, a 54% year-on-year increase, and its cumulative registrations for the first seven months grew 5% to 1,000 vehicles. Geely's new energy brand Zeekr sold 111 electric vehicles in Europe in July, bringing its cumulative sales for the first seven months to 910 vehicles.

In total, Chinese NEV brands sold 10,558 vehicles in Europe in July, a 6% year-on-year decrease. However, cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2024 still showed a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 80,946 vehicles.

Foreign analysts believe that many Chinese brands rushed to complete registration procedures before the tariff deadline, leading to a dip in July sales. In the long run, building local factories appears to be the only way for Chinese brands to establish a foothold in the European market.

BYD, for instance, is constructing factories in Hungary and Turkey, which will help the company avoid new tariffs once they come online. Additionally, BYD recently announced the acquisition of its German distributor, further signaling its commitment to the European market.

However, the decline in Chinese NEV sales in July is also linked to weaker demand for electric vehicles across Europe.

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, new car sales in Europe saw a modest 0.2% increase in July 2024, with Italy and Spain leading the growth, while France and Germany experienced declines of 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively.

From January to July 2024, European new car sales grew by 3.9% to over 6.5 million vehicles. Spain, Italy, Germany, and France, the four largest markets, all recorded growth, with Spain leading the way with a 5.6% increase. The association also noted that this growth is based on a low baseline from last year.

Despite the overall growth in new car sales, electric vehicle performance remained lackluster.

In July 2024, sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe fell by 10.8% to 102,705 units, with market share dropping from 13.5% a year ago to 12.1%. Although countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, and France saw growth, it was not enough to offset the sharp decline in Germany, where pure electric vehicle sales dropped by 36.8%. For the year, Europe has sold a cumulative 815,399 pure electric vehicles, accounting for 12.5% of the total market.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) also saw a decline, with sales dropping by 14.1% in July. Germany, however, posted a surprising 3.2% growth in this segment. Europe sold a total of 57,679 new PHEVs in July, accounting for 6.8% of the car market, down from 7.9% the previous year.

In contrast to the struggles of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, demand for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) continued to grow.

In July 2024, HEV sales in Europe increased by 25.7%, reaching 273,003 units. All four major markets saw growth—France was up 47.4%, Spain 31.5%, Germany 22.4%, and Italy 17.4%. This growth pushed HEV market share from 25.5% in July 2023 to 32% this year.

Based on the numbers, if we only consider pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, Europe's NEV penetration rate in July was just 18.9%, far below China's rate of over 50%. This explains why European automakers are becoming more cautious about NEVs.

However, when hybrid electric vehicles are included, Europe's NEV penetration rate in July reaches 50.9%, putting it on par with China's.

This raises the question: as the world transitions to electrification, will the future be purely electric, or will hybrid electric vehicles play a leading role?