贝列津：事情没那么简单

彼得·贝列津（Peter Berezin）是在全球宏观策略师里面我们所关注的一个比较特别的存在，大部分时候，和爱抱团的全球市场同僚不太一样，他的观点经常是反共识的，特立独行，但总是很准确。北京时间11月28日，他发布了对特朗普治下关税的终极想法。

文章全文对译如下，大家拨冗垂阅。

On October 15, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Donald Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” On Monday, he put those words into action by threatening to slap a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Collectively, the three countries account for 45% of US imports.

10月15日，唐纳德·特朗普在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时称关税是“字典中最美丽的词汇”。周一，他付诸行动，威胁对所有来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收25%的关税，并对中国进口商品额外征收10%的关税。这三国的商品合计占美国进口总量的45%。

Most investors I speak with think Trump is bluffing; that he will back down as soon as he receives some concessions (as he seemingly did with his post on Truth Social yesterday). However, I don’t think it is as simple as that. For Trump, tariffs are not a means to an end. They are an end in itself. He wants to erect a protectionist wall around the US because he really does believe that other economies are ripping off America.

我与之交流的大多数投资者认为特朗普是在虚张声势，认为他会在获得一定让步后退缩（正如他昨天在Truth Social上的发言似乎暗示的那样）。然而，我认为事情并不那么简单。对于特朗普而言，关税不是实现某种目标的手段，而是目标本身。他想要为美国构筑一堵保护主义的墙，因为他确实相信其他经济体正在剥削美国。

Plus, he needs the money. This is not 2016 when the 10-year TIPS yield was zero. Real yields are close to 2% and interest payments on the federal debt are soaring. I see four main economic implications for the US economy from the coming trade war:

此外，他需要资金。现在的情况已不同于2016年，当时10年期通胀保值债券（TIPS）的收益率为零。目前实际收益率接近2%，联邦债务的利息支付正在飙升，我认为即将到来的贸易战将对美国经济产生四个主要影响：

First, higher tariffs will raise import prices, depressing real household disposable income in the process. I realize that Trump does not think this will happen, but this is what the evidence says. A particularly clean example, so to speak, occurred in early 2018 when the Trump administration hiked tariffs on washing machines. Not only did the price of imported washing machines rise in response to the tariffs, but prices of domestically produced washing machines increased too. To boot, dryer prices also went up, even though they were not subject to tariffs.

首先，更高的关税将提高进口商品的价格，从而压低家庭的实际可支配收入。我明白特朗普并不认为会出现这种情况，但证据显示事实如此。一个特别清晰的例子出现在2018年初，当时特朗普政府提高了洗衣机的关税。不仅进口洗衣机的价格因关税而上涨，国内生产的洗衣机价格也随之上升。更甚的是，尽管干衣机并未受到关税影响，其价格也有所上涨。

Poorer families spend more of their income on goods than richer ones. This makes tariffs a regressive form of taxation. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a 60% tariff on Chinese imports coupled with a 20% tariff on all other countries will reduce real income for the bottom quintile of income earners by 5.7%, but by only 1.4% for the top 1%

较贫困的家庭将更多收入用于购买商品，这使关税成为一种累退税形式。根据税收与经济政策研究所（Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy）的数据，对中国进口商品征收60%的关税，同时对其他国家征收20%的关税，将导致最低收入五分之一家庭的实际收入减少5.7%，而最高1%收入家庭仅减少1.4%。

Second, higher tariffs will increase business costs. More than half of global trade consists of intermediate goods, which will be subject to higher tariffs. Uncertainty over trade policy will also depress investment spending. In fact, according to the IMF, more than half of the damage to global growth from tariffs will stem from firms deciding to sit on their hands while they ascertain the fallout from the trade war. Higher business uncertainty is one reason why manufacturing construction failed to rise during Trump’s first term in office, despite lower corporate taxes.

其次，更高的关税将增加企业成本。全球贸易中超过一半为中间产品，这些产品将受到更高关税的影响。贸易政策的不确定性还将抑制投资支出。事实上，根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的分析，关税对全球经济增长造成的损害有一半以上来源于企业在评估贸易战影响时选择按兵不动。尽管企业税率降低，但在特朗普的第一任期内，制造业建设未能增长，这其中一个原因便是企业不确定性上升。

Third, by curbing demand for imports, higher tariffs will push up the value of the US dollar. A stronger dollar, in turn, will limit exports and reduce the dollar value of overseas revenues. A standard rule of thumb is that every 1% appreciation in the trade-weighted dollar lowers S&P 500 EPS by 0.25%. The trade-weighted dollar has strengthened by 1.9% since the election and 4.8% since late September .

第三，更高的关税通过抑制进口需求，会推高美元的价值。而更强的美元反过来会限制出口，并降低海外收入的美元价值。一个常见的经验法则是，贸易加权美元每升值1%，标普500企业每股收益（EPS）将下降0.25%。自选举以来，贸易加权美元已上涨1.9%，自9月底以来则上涨了4.8%。

Fourth, higher tariff-induced inflation could force the Fed to curtail the pace of rate cuts and perhaps even raise rates. A scenario analysis conducted by the Fed in September 2018 implied that it should look through the impact of tariffs on prices, but only if inflation expectations remain well anchored.

第四，由关税引发的更高通胀可能迫使美联储放缓降息步伐，甚至提高利率。美联储于2018年9月进行的一项情景分析显示，如果通胀预期能够保持稳定，美联储应该忽略关税对价格的影响。

Having been badly burned by the “transitory” narrative three years ago, the Fed might be reluctant to label the inflationary consequences of tariffs as transitory again. This could cause the yield curve to re-invert while weakening equity prices.

由于三年前因“暂时性”通胀的论述遭受严重打击，美联储可能不愿再次将关税导致的通胀后果称为“暂时性”，这可能会导致收益率曲线重新倒挂，同时削弱股价表现。

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