外媒警告：这个夏天，美国人要难过了……

美国特朗普政府在关税政策上的倒行逆施，在美国国内引发强烈反对和担忧。

英国《金融时报》4月12日发文，指出从微波炉到芭比娃娃，美国消费者高度依赖中国产品，特朗普关税下，他们无法很快找到替代品，面临消费价格上涨或无货可买的局面。甚至，一些人想度过凉爽的夏天都要“付出高昂代价”。

从芭比娃娃、电风扇到微波炉统统要涨价

去年，美国进口的电子游戏机、食品加工机和电风扇等产品中，超过四分之三产自中国；美国人购买的娃娃、三轮车、滑板车等玩具，也有四分之三产自中国。眼下，所有想要购买这些商品的美国消费者都将面对更高的价格。

More than three-quarters of the video game consoles, food processors and electric fans imported into the US last year were made in China. Anyone hoping to purchase toys will also have to grapple with higher prices. China made 75 percent of the dolls, tricycles, scooters and other wheeled toys delivered to US consumers from abroad last year.

早在特朗普升级关税战之前，芭比娃娃的制造商美泰公司就警告称，该公司可能会提高在美国的售价，以弥补关税带来的影响。除了芭比娃娃，这家美国玩具制造商还生产风火轮汽车和UNO纸牌，该公司40%的产品都在中国制造。

Mattel, the toymaker behind the Barbie doll, warned it could raise US prices to offset the impact of the levies — and that was before Trump's latest escalation in the tit-for-tat tariff war. The California-based company, which also makes Hot Wheels cars and the Uno card game, said 40 percent of its products were made in China.

美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员查德·鲍恩表示，和特朗普第一个任期相比，美国对中国产品征收关税的税率更高、速度更快，而且涉及很多新型消费品，这些措施的速度和规模意味着，成本更有可能转嫁给美国消费者。

“如今，（美国）消费者购买这类产品时，价格大幅上涨的可能性要大得多。”鲍恩说。

《金融时报》指出，对于那些尚未对关税做好准备的美国人来说，想要度过一个凉爽的夏天可能要付出高昂代价。去年美国从海外进口的风扇中，有90%来自中国；独立式空调中，有40%来自中国。就上述两类产品而言，中国占据着全球出口市场的主导地位。

微波炉也是如此，中国控制了全球四分之三的出口市场，去年美国进口的微波炉有90%来自中国。

The levies mean staying cool during the summer months may prove expensive for Americans not already prepared — nine in 10 electric fans bought from abroad in the US last year came from China, as did 40 percent of self-contained air- conditioning units. China dominates the global export market for both. Americans thinking of purchasing a new microwave will also face potential price increases; 90 percent of those imported into the US last year came from China, and Beijing controls three-quarters of the global export market.

2021年2月，浙江省湖州市某空调总装车间内，出口北美的空调正在被装配。图源：VCG

专家：想把游戏机、手机制造业迁出中国十分困难

英国贸易部前官员、现就职于SEC Newgate咨询公司的艾莉·雷尼森说，中国在全球众多出口产品中占据主要地位，这意味着寻找替代制造商并不容易。

她表示，近年来，美国和西方企业一直在将供应链从中国转移到其他亚洲国家，但其组装的产品仍大量使用中国原材料和零部件。在雷尼森看来，能否替代中国产品取决于针对这些具体产品的规则有多严格，以及相关国家对美国的“友好程度”。

而对于游戏机和手机等电子产品而言，想把制造业迁出中国尤为困难，因为其供应链复杂，对制造这些产品的技术要求也很高。

China's dominance of so many global exports means finding alternative manufacturers will not be easy, according to former UK trade department official Allie Renison, now at consultancy SEC Newgate. "American and Western businesses have been shifting their supply chains out of China and to other Asian countries in recent years," she said. "But with so many Chinese raw materials and component parts still going into the products they're assembling, much will depend on how exacting these product-specific rules are and how US-friendly the countries are." Moving manufacturing out of China is particularly difficult for electronic products such as games consoles and mobile phones because of their complex supply chains and the skill required to make them.

美国密歇根州立大学商学院教授杰森·米勒表示：“快速脱钩将非常困难，特别是对于智能手机等必须创造额外产能、培训工人和建立替代供应链的商品而言。”

美国银行分析师瓦姆西·莫汉则直言，即使苹果公司将其在印度生产的iPhone全部（约2500万部）供应给美国市场，也只能满足美国一半的需求。

尽管苹果公司近年来逐步扩大在印度的业务，但市场分析机构Counterpoint Research估计，苹果约80%的智能手机依然是在中国生产。

"Rapid decoupling will be quite difficult, especially for goods like smartphones where additional capacity must be created, workers trained and alternative supply lines for inputs established,” said Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University's College of Business. If Apple were to reserve its entire iPhone output from India for the US market, it would still only cover about half of the 50mn-plus models the company ships to America each year, according to Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. Overall, four in five of the smartphones and games consoles imported into the US last year were made in China. Trump has not ruled out some US companies being exempted from reciprocal tariffs, but the worry for shoppers is that other products may not be available at all.

来源：观察者网 金融时报

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