2025年4月14日, 新加坡国务资政李显龙与全国职工总会和工会领袖对话时 指出,美国推行的“美国优先”本质上是零和博弈,美国加征关税可能迅速引发美自身经济衰退,同时波及世界其他地区。
以下内容为新加坡眼根据英文翻译整理:
各位同胞:
晚上好!感谢大家的热烈欢迎。我今晚并非要发布政策,而是希望与各位展开对话。我很高兴能这样做。我们定期举行这类交流,尤其在财政预算案公布后。但今晚,我想重点谈谈当前国际形势及新加坡的应对之策。
2025财政预算案是未雨绸缪的全面支持
我首先谈谈财政预算案。2025年财政预算案是新加坡有史以来规模最大的——1430亿新元,也是一份全面的预算案,提供人们最需要的支持:
- 家庭开支:缓解人们最关心的生活费问题,包括分发给每个家庭的社区发展理事会邻里购物券(CDC券)、水电费回扣和服务与杂费回扣(U-Save/S&CC)、儿童生活助手补助券(LifeSG Credits),以及建国60周年邻里购物券(SG60 Vouchers,成人600新元,银发族额外加200新元,可获800新元)。
- 技能提升:对于工人,我们加强了技能提升计划。包括技能创前程(SkillsFuture)进阶计划,更加全面的培训津贴,以及为选择特定部分时间课程者,提供津贴以抵消开支。
- 企业援助:为企业和中小企业提供援助,通过津贴和回扣减轻企业成本压力,并支持企业提升员工技能。我们还投资于人工智能、基础设施、清洁能源等增长引擎(如提供气候优惠券,助力国人购买节能家电,如空调、洗衣机、烤箱等)。
因此,这是一个全面而稳健的一揽子计划。
财政预算案的慷慨是有原因的。因为我们可以看到国际形势乌云密布,风暴正在酝酿,我们想确保能够未雨绸缪。我们知道中东正在发生什么。我们可以看到中美紧张局势。我们可以看到欧洲的不确定性。当然,最近我们都看到了特朗普总统领导下的美国新政府的情况。许多新政策、方法的根本性重新思考,我们不确定会有什么新的惊喜。因此,我们编制了一份预算,一个一揽子计划,这就足够了。如果出了什么差错,每个人都会得到照顾。
“解放日”:全球贸易体系的地震
因此,当解放日不是在5月1日而是在4月2日到来时,我们并不感到完全意外。因为特朗普多年来一直非常明确地表示,他想征收关税,他想平衡美国的贸易逆差。他从年轻时就相信关税。他在竞选期间曾多次表示,当他上台后,他要对所有人征收关税;这是词汇表中最美丽的字眼。八、九年前,他第一次担任总统时,就征收了一些关税。因此,他要做些什么并不令人惊讶。但即便如此,“解放日”当天发生的事情也比预想的要激烈得多。事实上,这是全球贸易体系有史以来面临的最大冲击。股市暴跌。我认为,甚至美国的债券市场也发生了变化:利率上升,债券价格下跌。
目前,特朗普所谓的 “对等关税 ”被推迟了 90 天。他对中国的智能手机、笔记本电脑和芯片提出了一些排除条款。因此,目前还算是缓和。但对所有国家征收10%的关税是不容谈判的,而且已经生效并发生了。因此,推迟90天听起来就像是有了90天的缓刑期。但实际上,在这90天里,被推迟的不仅仅是关税。因为在这件事悬而未决的情况下,在等待、不确定它是来还是不来的情况下,其他一切都会陷入困境。因为 90 天之后会发生什么?我们知道,美国政府想要的是消除美国的贸易赤字。他们希望重建美国的制造业,让就业岗位回归。他们不仅想全面做到这一点,与整个世界保持平衡,还想逐个国家地做到这一点,不仅同中国,还有日本、加拿大、墨西哥、越南。而不是新加坡。为什么?因为美国对新加坡有顺差--这没关系。如果美国与新加坡有逆差,我们也会在名单上名列前茅。这就是他们思考问题的方式。
因此,这是一个基本信念,一个非常深刻的动机。特朗普相信这一点,他的团队也相信这一点。而这些目标将很难实现。因此,我们必须期待他继续追求这一目标,而当他采取了行动,但这些行动没有带来结果时,我认为结论不会是放弃,而是继续采取更多行动,进一步采取强有力的措施。因此,我们可以预期,随着时间的推移,美国人将采取进一步的措施。这将对包括新加坡在内的许多国家产生重大影响。因此,我们现在在这里,已经采取了步骤,步骤还在后面,未来还有更多的不确定性。我们已经不是新政府上任前或 4 月 2 日之前的样子了。世界正处于一个新阶段。
中美关税战:没有赢家
贸易中最大的问题之一以及由这一关税方案引发的问题是对中美关系的破坏。美国推迟了对其他国家的关税,但没有推迟对中国的关税。中美之间的关税战已经打响。第一轮,美国加征 20%,中国以部分产品回应。然后,美国又回来了。与中国来来回回。现在,美国对中国征收145%的关税,而中国(你这样对我,我也这样对你)对美国进口商品征收125%的关税。因此,这已经达到了数字不再重要的程度。可以是100%,可以是200%,也可以是300%。能做成多少生意?可能几乎没有,因为这是不可能的,实际贸易几近停滞。
而且,这还不止于这些关税项目。它超出了关税的范围。例如,中国限制稀土出口。稀土是什么?它们是制造各种电子设备所需的原材料,而中国是主要出口国。如果不从中国进口,就很难从其他地方进口。因此,中国说:“你这样做,我会做出回应。我会限制稀土出口。如果你不想让我卖货给你,那好吧。我不买你的商品是一回事,但我也会限制好莱坞电影的进口”。电影不是商品,因为电影你只要流过来就可以了,它是服务。但没关系,我会限制的。我不看迪士尼,我看《哪吒闹海2》。
因此,实际上,双边贸易将被扼杀。为什么呢?因为企业做不到。如果关税是 5%、10%,甚至是15%,好吧,我卖给你,让我们来谈谈。你拿 5%,我拿 10%,我们把腰带勒紧一点--我的利润少一点,你的成本高一点,好吧,让我们尽量保持冷静,继续下去。但是,当它达到150%、200%,而你不知道明天或后天会发生什么的时候,你就不能保持冷静,继续前进。你必须保持冷静,然后你可能不得不决定转行或停业。这意味着整个企业和贸易流动都将停止。
而且,这还不止于贸易,因为如果我在如此严重的问题上与你争吵,我就很难在其他同样严重的问题上与你合作。例如,美国人希望中国在限制芬太尼方面给予合作,因为制造芬太尼的材料来自中国;不知何故,这些材料流向墨西哥和其他地方,被制成芬太尼,然后走私到美国。美国希望中国停止制造易制毒化学品。但中国说,好吧,我为什么要努力呢?因此,事态将不断升级,并将对中美关系产生深远影响。
事实上,这不是一个新问题。这个问题并非始于这位总统。这个问题已存在多年。奥巴马就任总统后,人们的态度发生了变化。随着时间的推移,它们变得更加强硬。因此,民主党人和共和党人都是如此。我们说美国人是分裂的。但在中国问题上,美国人是团结的。他们有一个强烈的共识,即中国的挑战既不容小觑又与日俱增(pacing challenge),他们必须非常认真、积极地对待中国。他们非常努力地走在中国前面,防止中国超越他们。与此同时,中国人说:"我在成长,我在发展。我要在世界上占据应有的位置。谁能阻止我?因此,这是一个根本矛盾。美国人说:“我要确保你们不会超过我”。中国人说,“我有发展的权利”。我们可以谈论双赢,但当你这样说时,就存在根本矛盾,而且不会轻易解决。最近的贸易战更加剧了这一矛盾。这将成为两国和世界面临的一个严重问题。
那么,我们该怎么办呢?有人说:“不要激动,不要过分夸大这个问题。我们曾经历过更大的风暴。我们没有失败过。我们应该从容应对”。的确,我们不应该激动。我们应该泰然处之。但我们确实需要关注和了解正在发生的事情以及这对我们意味着什么。因为这一次,有些重要的事情有所不同。
多年来,我们经历过多次危机。我们经历过全球金融危机,在此之前还有亚洲金融危机。我们经历过 SARS。最近,我们又经历了 COVID-19。世界上每隔一段时间就会发生一些事情,我们都扛了下来,我们必须绷紧神经,渡过难关。每次我们都成功了,所以我们有信心。但有一点很重要,你们必须明白,每次发生这种情况时,有两件大事对我们有利。第一,在新加坡内部,我们做的是正确的事情。我们可以团结起来。我们可以齐心协力。我们可以采取正确的政策,甚至是痛苦的政策。我们还可以理清体制,理清自己。第二,上次我们每次陷入困境时,新加坡都是全球经济体系和贸易体系的一部分。这个贸易体系促进了贸易的自由流动和投资的自由流动;它鼓励跨国公司寻找做生意的地方。我们很有效率。我们做得很好。我们从困境中走出来,又插了回去。我们可以恢复增长、恢复发展、恢复成功。所以,每次遇到困难时,你都会站出来,插上插头,发展壮大。当下一次遇到困难走出来时,体系仍在。
这是一个全球金融体系,即世贸组织体系。这个体系就是帮助我们的原因。是什么帮助了我们?它为大小国家提供了一个公平竞争的环境。无论你是大国还是小国,在世贸组织体系下,规则是一样的,你的准入也是一样的。我指的是什么?比方说国与国之间。我们进行贸易,对吗?有时我们有关税,有时我们有其他限制。你可以这样做,但你不能区别对待你的合作伙伴,大的和小的。让我们举个例子,如果欧盟对来自日本的汽车提高关税。为了保护欧洲汽车,你们对日产或丰田汽车提高了关税,那么你们就必须对其他国家的汽车收取同样的关税;中国汽车、韩国汽车、印度汽车、美国汽车。你必须对它们一视同仁。如果新加坡有汽车出口,新加坡也将被征收同样的关税。
另一方面,如果我们给予一个国家优惠,例如,如果澳大利亚说:“我允许印度大米免税销售”,那么他们就必须对所有其他国家的大米采取同样的做法: 日本大米、中国大米、越南大米和美国大米。每个国家的大米都必须免税。这必须是一个公平的竞争环境。你可以保护自己,但不能区别对待你的合作伙伴。这就是所谓的最惠国待遇。听起来,如果你是最惠国,你就会得到一些特殊的优惠--“最惠国待遇”,但实际上,最惠国待遇只是意味着同等优惠,意味着你不会比别人得到更多,也不会比别人得到更少。无论国家大小,这都是一个公平的竞争环境。但它的意思是,小国的议价能力很弱,因为规则就是这样,所以我们享有与大国同样的市场准入,我们从大国的讨价还价能力中获益。因此,我们可以获得准入,因此我们可以获得投资,因此我们可以获得就业机会。因此,最惠国待遇对新加坡至关重要。
这次不同的是,美国不想要最惠国待遇。他们想废除这一制度。他们想用对等关税取代最惠国待遇,这意味着我不会平等对待每个人。我想一对一地对待每个人、每个伙伴。我与你交易,你与我交易。你给我什么,我就给你什么,至少在原则上是这样。当然,当你们讨价还价时,我希望你们能多给我一点,因此要利用美国的讨价还价能力。因为他们是大国--占世界 GDP 的四分之一,占世界货物贸易总量的七分之一。“为什么要一视同仁?他们没有牌"。借用一句名言。我们何不一对一地对待,就像掰手腕一样。看看谁的肱二头肌更多,谁的胳膊更有力,我们就会知道谁更强壮。这样我们会得到更多。这是一个根本不同的世界,也是美国正在寻找和推动的世界。美国的做法不是双赢,而是双输。换句话说,美国只想自己过得好。他们真的不介意其他国家是否为自己做好事。特朗普总统最近公开表示:"如果我们达成了真正公平的协议,对美国有利,而不是对其他国家有利,这就是美国优先。现在是美国优先"。
因此,这对新加坡和世界都将产生重大影响。
为什么中美关税战对世界不利?
这对世界意味着什么?
首先,不同的国家将有不同的规则。小国将遭受损失,因为它们没有讨价还价的能力。但即使是大国也不会好过,因为会有很多混乱、很多不确定性、很多规则差异。贸易、投资和共同做生意的机会也会大大减少。
其次,关税(不管是平等的还是不平等的),在这种情况下,关税将变得不平等,将阻碍贸易,提高成本,抑制增长。在 2000 年代,即本世纪初,美国的关税平均约为1%。因此,基本上只要你能卖到美国,你的货物就几乎可以免税进入美国。但也有一些例外,比如卡车,他们的关税很高。其他如糖或乙醇,受到限制,因为很敏感,他们要保护农民。但总的来说,只有1%。它们是全球贸易体系的支柱。现在,它们已经达到了约10%,是80年来从未有过的水平。这是非常高的。这比任何其他发达国家都要高。
如果在 90 天后,其余的对等关税将达到30%、40%,有时甚至接近50%,那么美国的关税将比战前、大萧条时期还要高,当时美国将关税直接推高。这加剧了美国和世界的大萧条。此外,这还不是故事的结尾,因为迄今为止,捆绑关税还没有将药品和半导体这两种产品计算在内。医药和半导体产品可能会在短时间内感到高兴,但美国已经非常明确地表示,它很快就要来了,马上就要来了(akan datang)。这可能会对新加坡造成相当大的冲击,因为制药和半导体是我国经济的重要组成部分。因此,这是美国关税的直接影响。
但当其他国家进行报复时,你就必须预料到会有来来回回的针锋相对。这种情况已经发生在中国身上。其他国家也会这样。然后,它将导致螺旋式下降,影响将更加严重。加拿大已经采取了报复行动。欧盟也进行了报复,而且相当谨慎,因为他们有点害怕。他们对哈雷戴维森(Harley-Davidson)采取了行动,因为这是美国的标志性产品之一。但他们没有对威士忌和波旁威士忌征收高关税。为什么呢?因为美国人说,“你搞波本,我就搞法国葡萄酒、德国葡萄酒和香槟”。因此,双方都暂时搁置了--他们可以为此干杯。但这只是一小项。随着争吵的继续,规模会越来越大,影响也会越来越严重。中方已经走到了尽头。其他国家也会朝着这个方向发展。这将造成巨大伤害。
第四,当你征收关税时,我们说:“这将抑制增长,事情会放缓,好处会减少”,这不仅仅是抑制增长。它的破坏性将非常大。如果增长放缓意味着销量下降、利润下降、奖金减少;那么,我勒紧裤腰带,我仍然有我的工作,我们俩都有。也许随着时间的推移,我可以去找另一份工作。但是,如果供应链中断,如果你被100%的关税打击--中国的公司正在为美国制造圣诞树过圣诞节;150%的关税--圣诞节就不会来了。如果新加坡对药品和半导体征收这样的关税,我们还能过圣诞节吗?这意味着各行各业都可能受到干扰。企业会被彻底颠覆。你可能会遇到整个商业模式突然消失的情况,不仅仅是不再雇用更多的人,而且你可能会发现自己突然有了大量的剩余劳动力。如何照顾他们?这可能会很快导致经济衰退--美国本身的衰退,也会影响到其他地方。这将成为企业和消费者以及全球经济的负担。
第五,所有这些新关税--这将持续很长一段时间。它不会很快消失,因为一旦征收关税,一旦保护自己的市场,就很难取消。人们会对此习以为常。一些公司可能会投资。你一旦征收关税,你就会说 “来美国投资吧”。所以我在美国投资。这确实没有竞争力。你想在美国制造圣诞树,成本很高,到哪里去找工人?但在你征收关税之后,在圣诞树工厂建立起来之后,你又想取消关税。工厂说,“我要死了,请帮帮我”。所以,你再也无法挽回了。它就在那里。它就是现实。此外,如果你撤销它,反对党会说:“但你看中国人还在征收关税,我为什么要解除自己的关税?你必须与他们谈判--这又是一个漫长的过程。”
美国人从战前的高关税,到2000年关税降至1%,几乎为零,这是一个近 80 年的过程,是一个逐步降低关税的过程。因此,现在如果关税上升,会持续一段时间。如果你想把它们降回去,我认为这将是一个漫长的过程。它不会消失。因此,这将是一个长期的问题。
关税战如何影响新加坡?
对我们有什么影响?对我们的直接影响是经济增长。今年,我们希望经济增长 1%到3%。这也是我们在预算案公布时所宣布的。但是,由于世界上存在各种不确定性,贸工部(MTI)已经修改了预测。他们今天刚刚发布了新的预测;他们将预测值下调至0%至2%。你确定吗?可能是零吗?有可能。会是负增长吗?今年会出现经济衰退吗?当我们看到这些数字时,我们不这么认为,但它有可能发生。而且有可能发生,因为实际上你真的不知道。你看不到消费者是否在订购,需求是否良好,你的产品是否在改进,每个人是否都在蓬勃发展。如果我持乐观态度—让我们先投资。我认为只要我动作快,就一定会有收获。你不知道的是会有什么新政策出台。其他国家会怎么做?然后,美国会如何重新报复?你让我猜?这是不可能的。因此,不确定性非常高,这是一个问题,短期内的问题。正如我之前所解释的,从中长期来看也是如此。因此,我们必须预计今年的增长率会下降,未来某个地方会出现衰退,也许不是今年,但很可能在某个时候。从中期来看,5 年、10 年内,我们所处的世界将变得不那么友好。
因此,这次危机与以往危机的不同之处在于:以前,你可以走出来,走进一个正在运转的世界,我们融入其中,我们再次运转。这一次,我们没事,但世界不会没事,我们必须尽最大努力确保在这个不那么友好的世界里照顾好自己。
这只是经济方面。在地缘政治方面,我今晚不想多谈,但你们知道中美关系。我们知道贸易战将导致问题恶化。因此,我们必须预料到中美关系更加紧张,从而导致一个不那么平静、不那么稳定的地区。我们将需要更加努力工作,与双方成为朋友,并在不陷入困境的情况下找到自己的发展道路。
我认为,对新加坡来说,这意味着一些非常严重的影响。这次与以往不同,我们必须明白这一点,同时也要思考我们能做些什么。
那么,我们能做些什么呢?我认为有两个方面需要考虑--一个是国际方面,另一个是国内方面。
新加坡的对策--国际层面
国际方面--我认为我们必须继续支持自由贸易、多边主义和世贸组织。即使美国放弃了这些规则,我们也要努力维持这个体系,不让它崩溃。美国是最大的经济体。他们的退出会对世界其他国家产生重大影响。但世界其他国家仍然在那里,如果我们能一起努力,我认为我们有公平的机会来维持这个体系。
我举例说明如何做到这一点。你们一定听说过 TPP(跨太平洋伙伴关系协定)。你们不需要知道细节,但基本上,12 个国家聚集在一起谈判自由贸易协定。新加坡在一开始就参与了这一进程。其中一个国家是美国。事实上,奥巴马总统非常积极地推动谈判,并试图就 TPP 达成协议,他成功了。但最后一步是让国会批准该协议,然后美国就加入了。他做不到这一点。他把这件事留给了继任者。他希望是希拉里。希拉里说,“不,我拒绝接受”,尽管她也参与其中。总之,希拉里输了,特朗普先生赢了。特朗普先生曾说:“如果我上台,我会在第一天就大开杀戒”。当他在2017年1月20日宣誓就职时,在第一天,他就扼杀了 TPP。但幸运的是,TPP并没有死亡,因为除了美国之外,还有11个成员。日本仍然在那里,安倍晋三先生是日本首相。他发挥了领导作用,团结了其他国家,重新谈判了协议,排除了我们迁就美国利益的所有部分,保留了协议的其他部分。他还召集了其他 11 个国家,我们都签署了协议,并得到了足够的批准。
我们现在有了《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)。美国离开了,游戏仍然可以继续。同样,在全球贸易体系中,美国不想再按规则行事。但其他国家,如果我们能在相互贸易的过程中维持这个体系,我认为这很重要,这对新加坡这样的国家非常有价值。因此,我们将与其他国家合作,努力实现这一目标。这是我们能做的第一件事。
我们能做的第二件事是促进与志同道合的伙伴达成贸易安排。例如,我们有东盟(ASEAN)集团。我们有东盟自由贸易协定。欧盟是我们的主要合作伙伴,我们可以与欧盟做生意。东盟可以与欧盟签订自由贸易协定,与他们进行谈判,扩大自由贸易的墨迹( ink blot for free trade)。为我们彼此合作共赢创造更多途径。新加坡正在推动这项工作。事实上,东盟贸易部长们已经召开了会议,我认为他们也将在这方面开展工作,并与其他伙伴合作。
《 全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》( CPTPP)很有价值,也可以继续发展。英国加入了 CPTPP。他们需要--因为他们脱欧了,没有合作伙伴,没得选择。英国加入了,但我们欢迎他们。但欧盟在四处寻找合作伙伴时说:“欧盟和 CPTPP 合作如何?一个在亚太地区,包括加拿大、墨西哥、秘鲁和智利,另一个在欧洲。我们可以一起做些有价值的事情”。CPTPP 成员很热衷,欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩也很热衷。我希望,如果我们能推动这一进程,我们就能有所收获。在这种情况下,你需要动力。如果你坐视不管,就会出事。如果你站起来推动一些事情,你可能会取得更多的进展,也可能会取得较少的进展,但你会取得一些进展,你会比现在更好。这是我们需要取得进展的领域,新加坡将帮助推动。
第三,在外部,我们需要在东盟内部与东盟伙伴开展更多合作。正如我所说的,我们已经签订了自贸协定,但我们还可以做得更多。我希望,有了这种额外的动力,我们可以做得更多。例如,新加坡和马来西亚正在讨论柔佛-新加坡经济特区(Johor-Singapore SEZ)。在柔佛,公司可以去那里,他们可以享受优惠条件,新加坡公司也可以繁荣发展。马来西亚的企业将从中受益,马来西亚将从中受益,外国公司可以在柔佛和新加坡,因此他们也可以从中受益。在这个过程中,新加坡和马来西亚的合作会更加紧密,这很好。当时,印尼报纸上有报道说,“新加坡和马来西亚在搞经济特区,新加坡和印尼在搞什么?”答案是,我们正在与印尼合作,但我认为存在一定程度的竞争,因为他们认为我们能够增加价值。我希望在东盟内部的压力下,我们能做得更多。因此,在国际上,在全球范围内,在世界贸易组织(WTO)方面--努力保持该体系的完整性。贸易集团之间的大伙伴可以走到一起,形成更大的集团。在东盟内部,努力使东盟更强大、更相关。新加坡是个小国,但我们的贸易额并不小。我认为我们可以做出一些贡献。
新加坡的对策 - 国内层面
我们必须在国内应对新形势。我将从三个方面来说。第一是实际支持,第二是心理准备,第三是政治支持。在实际支持方面,我们需要帮助家庭,帮助企业,保持经济增长。要帮助家庭,我想大家都知道我们有很多事情要做。生活费用当然是第一大项。今年,一般家庭将获得约4000新元的各种形式的援助。我们正在帮助被解雇的工人,比如求职者支持计划。我们在设计这项计划时预计到会出现混乱,预计到人们会流离失所,而这正是我们所需要的,如果关税真的使供应链混乱,使我们的产业受到严重破坏的话。被淘汰的工人将获得求职者支持计划的支持,以渡过失业、寻找新工作或接受新工作培训的时期。我们将为再技能培训提供支持。我刚才谈到了这一点。总之,我想说,我们的预算方案目前已经足够,但如果情况变得更糟,我们会做得更多,我可以向你们保证,我们有能力做得更多。
我们也必须帮助企业。我们在副总理颜金勇的领导下成立了经济韧性小组( Economic Resilience Taskforce ),以应对不确定因素;并帮助企业转型。因此,这不仅是为了应对眼前的问题,也是为了应对更长远的问题。我们要抓住眼前挑战的机会,为提高长远竞争力做好准备。全国职工总会将参与这个特别小组,研究如何以最佳方式支持工人渡过难关。
其次,我认为我们需要做好心理准备。我们需要为一个更加动荡的世界做好准备。你必须知道坏的环境即将来临。但与此同时,我们可以感到欣慰的是,其他国家也面临着类似的挑战,而新加坡比大多数国家更有能力应对这一挑战。因为我们有计划、有决心、有经验、有资源、有团结。我们已经做好准备,齐心协力应对挑战。
如果我们要共渡难关,我们必须做的重要事情之一,就是审视我们社会中的断层、压力和紧张。因为如果你想说 “让我们团结起来”,那就不仅仅是穿同一件 T恤,而是要确保我们互相照顾,互相关心。确保在出现断层时,遇到更大困难的人们、可能被抛在后面的人们、流离失所的人们不会感到被冷落,不会感到孤独。他们知道别人关心他们,新加坡关心他们。我们会帮助你们,你们帮助自己,我们一起努力。我们同舟共济。我认为这是我们在危机中必须具备的一种非常重要的心态,我们能够做到这一点。
在美国,这个问题导致了压力、怨气和不满,导致了政府推行所有这些非常激烈的政策。因为美国的某些地区已经被抛在后面,这些地区的工业发展都非常糟糕。他们称之为 “铁锈地带”。这些地方的工业都做得很差,工人没有工作,人民被遗弃。美国的蓝领工人,他们在全国各地的工作都不好做,收入也不高。他们的生活因毒品、失业和犯罪而黯然失色。他们被抛在后面,他们投票要求彻底改变,他们想要打破体制,他们想要一个不同的世界。
我们决不能让我们的民众或部分民众有这种感觉。我们也会有压力和紧张,因为如果其他地方经济衰退,就会出现裁员,如果供应线中断,就会出现失调。如果技术出现而我们没有做好准备,也会出现失调。如果人工智能来了,如果机器人技术大规模出现,而你的工作被剥夺或改变,你无法胜任新的工作,你就失业了。迄今为止,我们一直在防止这种情况在新加坡发生。我认为,在这种情况下,我们必须加倍努力,确保这种情况不会发生。
如果你能做到所有这些,照顾好家庭、照顾好物质需求、确保我们做好心理准备—那么我们也能解决政治问题,那就是作为一个新加坡团队团结起来,与政府密切合作。你需要有一个好的政府,一个有效的政府,一个强大的政府,才能照顾好新加坡。新加坡必须在国内强大,才能在国际上强大。
让我来解释一下。我认为,当你说在外交政策上,新加坡必须用一个声音说话时,我想每个人都会同意。即使是反对党也会同意。当你以国会代表团的形式出访海外时,来自不同党派的人,我们加入同一个国会代表团,代表新加坡出访。但反对党更进一步。他们说,在海外,我们团结一致。在国内,我们来挑战。现在,这是一个问题。为什么会有问题呢?我告诉你们,我参加国际会议已经有20多年了—事实上,已经有30年、40年了,但最近20年是以总理身份参加。现在,幸运的是,黄循财总理正在做这件事。不过,让我告诉你们我参加这些会议的经验。我们经常见面,因为这些会议每年或每隔一年举行一次。这次我见到你,也许下次我就能见到你的继任者。在有些国家,我每次去参加会议,都会见到新总理。有时,我看到首相,看到他的代表团,看到那里的一些面孔,看到报纸,我就知道其中有些人希望成为下一任首相。有时结果也是如此。因此,当你们见面时,我会评估你,你也会评估我。我会问自己:“我现在在和你说话。总理阁下,是的,先生。” 五年后你还会在这里吗?五年后您的政策还会继续吗?我可以和你做生意吗? 我可以和你们做生意,承诺并做一些事情,制定一个计划吗?建一座工厂可能需要两三年时间。工厂的盈亏平衡可能需要10年或20年。如果你不在这里,我能做笔交易吗?所以我评估他们。你觉得他们会评估我吗?当然会!他们会看到发生了什么。他们会让大使馆在这里写报告。如果你在新加坡有不同的意见,大使馆就会说,这位总理的演讲很精彩,但实际上他在国内有很多政治问题。当你见到他们时,你会受到礼遇,但我认为他们没有同样的分量,你将无法在这个国家捍卫和推进新加坡的利益。
另一方面,如果他们知道你对国内的情况了如指掌,如果他们知道你有强大的支持,良好的支持,他们知道你与民众保持联系,你已经很好地控制了国内问题,那么他们就会认真对待你。事实上,他们会问你:“对了,我听说你们的医疗保健系统还不错,告诉我你们是怎么做的。” 或者,我也遇到过一次这样的情况,我们正在讨论腐败问题。那是我作为总理第一次参加亚太经合组织会议的初期,其中一个大国对我说:“新加坡,告诉我们你们是如何打击腐败的。” 他们知道我们。他们想知道我们是如何工作的。这有很大的不同。
因此,要想在国际上有成效,强大,就必须国内团结一致。当人们说,新加坡是一个安全的避风港。在一个不确定的世界里,在新加坡,你有保障,你有安全。这就是为什么人们要在这里设立家族办公室。这就是为什么人们愿意在这里存钱。这就是为什么人们有信心把价值数十亿美元的工厂放在这里,而这些工厂需要20 年、30年才能收回成本,因为新加坡是一个安全的避风港。而避风港的一个重要部分,一个重要因素,就是稳定的政治,良好的政治。
我知道许多新加坡人希望有更多的反对党,如果你问为什么,他们会说,我们希望对人民行动党有更有力的制衡。我想说的是,反对党在我们的民主制度中扮演着重要角色。它将继续存在。反对党议员永远不会从国会中消失。我接受这一点。这就是民主制度的运作方式。我们一开始的处境很不寻常,国会中人民行动党几乎占压倒性多数,反对党几乎为零。我认为这种情况永远不会改变,我们将与之合作。
但是,新加坡也需要一个有效的政府体系,由一个优秀和有能力的执政党领导,而这取决于选举能否带来对新加坡有利的结果。什么是对新加坡有利的结果?那就是在选举之后,国家能够产生一个有能力、有决心、诚实的领导层,能够管理一个有能力、高效率、有成效的政府。捍卫我们在世界上的地位,带领新加坡安全度过危机。
这就是选举的最终目的;选择谁来领导国家,并确保能够领导国家的团队能够出色地完成任务。事实上,最理想的是能够最成功、最有效地领导国家的团队。这个制度的一部分就是执政党和反对党。有执政党议员,也有反对党议员。但是,如果选民不断选出更多的反对党议员,即使政府的工作做得很好,那么在某种程度上,这一定会削弱政府的执政能力,削弱政府为新加坡组建最佳团队的能力,削弱政府按照新加坡人所期望的方式管理国家的能力。必须如此。有人说,公务员制度很了不起,你不需要一个好部长。任何人都可以成为部长。常务秘书会做这些工作,你只需坐在那里说 “是 ”或 “不是”。这就好比说你不需要一个好的部长;工会很好,部长只需坐在那里说 “一切都很好”。真的是这样吗?你在企业工作时,企业是这样运作的吗?如果你看到一家企业的老板这样做,你认为优秀的人还会留在这家企业吗?或者他们会说:“这个地方没有希望,还是去为更好的老板工作吧”。要管理好一个团队,你需要一个好的领导者。如果没有一个好的领导者,一个好的团队就会消失。我们需要有这样的领导,这样的素质,新加坡才能取得成功。
我给你们举个例子—2020 年大选,正值COVID-19 期间。当 COVID-19 出现时,我们距离选举还有一年左右的时间。但当大流行开始变得严重时,我决定在可行的情况下尽快举行选举。有些人说,“不,尽可能推迟”。甚至宣布紧急状态,推迟到 COVID-19 之后。我说:“不,你现在就去”。断路器是没办法的事--我们必须解决眼前的问题。处理完之后,我说:“让我们提前举行一次大选,选出一个拥有全新授权的新团队。我们将面临许多挑战。我们将不得不做出许多艰难的决定。人们将经历许多混乱和困难。我们必须集中精力对抗COVID-19,如果我每天都想制定新的COVID-19政策,却不得不问自己,我应该在选举前还是选举后这样做,那我们就无法做到这一点。新加坡人会死的,真的。因此,我们大选了,我们得到了很好的授权,此后,我们集中精力作为一个国家与 COVID-19 作斗争,我很欣慰地说,我们并没有失败。这是因为我们能够团结起来,将我们的团队凝聚在一起,能够集中精力解决问题。”
2020年大选取得了一个很好的结果,但不幸的是,我们失去了盛港选区,在这个过程中,我们失去了黄志明兄弟作为候选人。这是工运的一个挫折。但幸运的是,黄志明兄弟有毅力和魄力继续担任秘书长,幸运的是工运继续支持他。工运还支持团队中的其他领导人--人民行动党国会议员:王志豪(Heng Chee How)、陈国明(Desmond Tan)、郑德源(Patrick Tay)、朱倍庆(Desmond Choo),以及坚定的工会领导人,如Thana姐妹、Mary姐妹,以及职总中央委员会和工会中的许多其他人。
因此,在大流行病期间,工运领导有方,可以成为政府的好伙伴,并发挥了关键作用。它挽救了工作岗位,推动了技能提升。它管理着自雇人士收入补贴计划(SIRS)。因此,它不仅帮助工会会员或可谈判的雇员,还帮助新加坡的工人,包括自雇人士。此外,它还将目光投向了大流行病之外,成立了企业培训委员会(CTCs),以支持企业提高技能。结果证明,这是一个非常成功的项目。因此,在今年的预算中,我们又投入了2 亿新元的支持,因为你们的钱已经用完了。但我们很高兴,因为它超额完成了你们的计划,是一个很好的项目,所以我们会支持它,做得更多。
因此,全国职工总会能够帮助我们从 COVID-19 中走出来并强劲反弹。这就是三方合作的含义——政府、工会、雇主携手合作。事实上,这就是人民行动党和全国职工总会之间的共生关系所能为工人和新加坡带来的好处。这也是黄循财总理和他的4G团队致力于加强三方合作和共生伙伴关系的原因。我期待你们在下届大选中支持这个团队。尤其是支持团队中的工运领袖和人民行动党工会顾问。
结束语
今晚的演讲或许令人不安,但我认为我有责任来到这里,直接、坦率、诚实地与你们交谈,与你们分享事情的真相。
这是我在从政之初学到的一课,当时我刚刚成为部长,我们正在应对经济衰退,1985年的严重经济危机,我们不得不削减公积金,雇主公积金削减了15个百分点。你们有些上了年纪的人会记得那是一个多么令人震惊和艰难的决定。但我们能够坚持下来,因为当时工会会员对他们的领导人充满信心。王鼎昌兄弟是当时的秘书长。政府部长们--王鼎昌本人、我、吴作栋、时任副部长的林文兴--我们亲自前往工会,与工会领袖交谈,与工人交谈,一次又一次,让他们了解利害关系,让他们支持能让我们摆脱困境的政策。幸运的是,他们相信了我们。他们信任我们。他们接受了建议,接受了治疗,新加坡的恢复速度比预期的要快得多。因此,每当我遇到这样的危机或这样的情况时,我的第一反应就是:“让我们谈谈,了解这是怎么回事。我们能一起做些什么?如何摆脱困境,而不是越陷越深”。因此,我认为我们可以满怀信心地投入战斗。我们有资源,我们有经验--我们已经准备好了。我们曾经做到过,我们将向世界证明,我们可以再次做到。
即将到来的大选至关重要。这是一个变化了的世界。我们有一个新的团队掌权,我们将有新的决心应对挑战,并变得更加强大。
黄循财总理首次带领人民行动党参加选举,寻求自己的使命,带领新加坡向前迈进--渡过危机,实施计划,开创未来。
我希望新加坡人了解正在发生什么,什么事关重大,以及我们必须做些什么来共同确保我们的未来。谢谢大家。
以下内容为英文原稿:
Transcript of speech by Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the dialogue with NTUC and union leaders on 14 April 2025.
Good evening brothers and sisters. Thank you for the very, very warm welcome. I did not come to make an announcement; I came to do a dialogue with everybody. I am very glad to do this. We hold these regularly, particularly after Budgets. But tonight, I would like to talk more about what is happening in the world; and what we need to do as a country.
I will start with the Budget. Budget 2025 was the record budget for Singapore. Biggest ever – $143 billion – and it was a comprehensive budget which delivered support where it was most needed. Support for the cost of living, which is very much on people’s minds – CDC vouchers for households, U-Save and S&CC rebates, LifeSG credits for children, and this year being SG60 year, SG60 Vouchers for every adult, $600, or if you have enough white hair, $800. For workers we have enhancements to skills upgrading. SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme, more comprehensive training allowance, and also allowances to help you defray your expenses, even for people on part-time programmes. We have support for businesses and SMEs. Cost relief through grants and rebates, support for the companies to upskill their workforces. And we invested in our growth engines – AI, infrastructure, and in clean energy, for example Climate Vouchers to buy more energy efficient air-conditioners, washing machines, ovens, what have you. So, it was a comprehensive and robust package.
And it was generous for a reason. Because we could see clouds on the horizon. Because we could see that storms were brewing and we wanted to make sure that we were prepared for unexpected things which would happen. We knew what was going on in the Middle East. We could see US-China tensions. We could see the uncertainties in Europe. And most recently of course we could all see what was happening with the new administration in the US under President Trump. Many new policies, fundamental re-thinking of approaches, and we were not sure what new surprises we would expect. And therefore, we prepared a budget, a package, which would be enough. If something goes not quite right, everybody is looked after.
Liberation Day
So, when Liberation Day came, not on the 1st of May, but on the 2nd of April, that was not a complete surprise to us. Because Trump had signalled very clearly, and over many years, that he wanted to do tariffs and he wanted to equalise America’s trade deficit. He believed in tariffs since he was a young man. He had said during this campaign repeatedly that when he comes in, he was going to put tariffs on everybody; it was the most beautiful word in the vocabulary. The first time he was President, eight, nine years ago, he had imposed some tariffs. So, that he was going to do something was not a surprise. But even then, what happened on Liberation Day was more drastic than expected. In fact, it is the biggest shock that the global trading system has ever faced. The stock markets plunged. I think even the bond markets moved in America – interest rates went up, bond prices came down.
For now, there is a 90-day postponement on what Trump calls the "reciprocal tariffs". He has put in some exclusions for Chinese smartphones, laptops, and chips. And so for the time-being, there is a reprieve. But tariffs on all the countries – 10% – that is non-negotiable, and that is in force and happened already. So postponing 90 days sounds like you have got 90 days of reprieve. But actually, during this 90 days, it is not just the tariffs which have been postponed. Because with this thing hanging over you, waiting, not sure if it is going to come or not come, everything else goes into limbo. Because what happens after 90 days? We know that what the US administration wants, is to eliminate the US trade deficit. They want to rebuild manufacturing in the US, bring the jobs back. And they want to do this not only across the board, to balance with the whole world, but they want to do this country-by-country – with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam. Not with Singapore. Why? Because America has a surplus with Singapore - that is all right. If America has a deficit with Singapore, we will be there, high on the list too. It is the way they are thinking about their problems.
So this is the fundamental belief, a very deep motivation. Trump believes it, his team believes it. And these are goals which are going to be very difficult to achieve. So, we must expect him to continue to pursue this objective, and when he makes moves but the moves have not delivered results, I think the conclusion will not be to leave off, but to continue to do more moves and to take further strong measures. So we can expect to see further steps taken by the Americans over time. And that is going to have very major consequences for many countries, including Singapore. So we are here now, steps have been taken, steps yet to come, more uncertainties to come. We are not where we were before this new Administration took office, or before the 2nd of April. The world is in a new phase.
US-China
One of the biggest problems in trade and arising from this tariff package is the damage to US-China relations. America has postponed the tariffs against other countries but has not postponed against China. The tariff war between America and China has already begun. First round, America put 20% on, China responded with selected products. Then America came back again. Went back and forth with China. Now US levies on China are 145% and the Chinese – you do this to me, I do this to you – The Chinese do to US imports, US sales to China, 125%. So, it has reached the level where the number does not matter anymore. It can be 100%, it can be 200%, it can be 300%. How much business is going to be done? Probably, almost none, because it is impossible.
And it does not stop with such tariff items. It goes beyond tariffs. For example, China has restricted rare earth exports. What are rare earths? They are raw materials which you need to make all kinds of electronics equipment, and China is a major exporter. If you do not get it from China, it is very difficult to get it from other places. So China says, “You do this to me, I will respond. I will restrict rare earth exports. And if you do not want me to sell you goods, okay. I will not buy your goods is one thing, but I will also restrict imports of Hollywood films.” Films are not goods, because films you just stream over, it is services. But never mind, I will restrict that. I will not watch Disney, I will watch Ne Zha 2.
So effectively, the bilateral trade is going to get killed. And why? Because the businesses just cannot do it. If the tariff is five percent, 10%, maybe even 15%, okay I am selling it to you, let’s cham siong. You take 5%, I take 10%, we squeeze our belts a little bit – my profit a bit less, your cost a bit higher, okay, let us try to stay calm and carry on. But when it is 150%, 200%, and you do not know what is going to happen tomorrow or day after, then you cannot stay calm and carry on. You must stay calm, and then you may have to decide to go into a different business or to go out of business. And that means entire businesses and trade flows are going to stop.
And it would not end with trade, because if I am quarrelling with you on such a serious matter, it is very difficult for me to cooperate with you on other equally serious things. So, for example, the Americans want China to cooperate on restricting fentanyl, because the materials to make fentanyl come from China; somehow they go to Mexico and other places, they are made into fentanyl, then smuggled into the US. And America wants China to stop making the precursor chemicals. But China says, well, why should I try very hard? So this is going to escalate, and there will be far reaching consequences for US-China relations.
This is not a new problem, actually. It is not a problem which started with this President. It is a problem which has been growing for quite a number of years. The attitudes changed when Obama became President. Over time, they hardened. So it is Democrats as well as Republicans. We say that the Americans are divided. But on China, the Americans are united. They have a strong consensus that China is a pacing challenge, and they have to take China very seriously and actively. They are trying very hard to stay ahead of China and to prevent China from overtaking them. At the same time, the Chinese say, "I am growing, I am developing. I want to take my rightful place in the world. Who is going to stop me?" So, this is a fundamental contradiction. The Americans say, "I want to make sure that you do not overtake me". The Chinese say, "I have a right to develop". We can talk about win-win, but when you cast it like that, there is a fundamental contradiction, and it is not going to be easily resolved. The latest trade war has worsened it. And it is going to be a serious problem for the two countries and also for the world.
So what do we do about it? Some people say, "Do not get excited, do not overblow the issue. We have weathered bigger storms before. We have not failed. We should take these events in our own stride." And it is true, we should not get excited. We should take it in our own stride. But we do need to be concerned and to understand what is happening and what this means for us. Because this time, something important is different.
We have gone through many crises before over the years. We have gone through the Global Financial Crisis, before that, Asian financial crisis. We had SARS. Most recently, we have had COVID-19. And every now and again something happens in the world, we have carried along, and we have to batten down our hatches and see it through. And every time we have succeeded, so we have confidence. But one important thing which you must understand is that every time that happened, we had two big things going in our favour. One, within Singapore, we were doing the right thing. We could get united. We could get our act together. We could respond with the right policies, even painful ones. And we could get the system, get ourselves sorted out. Two, every time we got into trouble last time, Singapore was part of a working global economic system, trading system. And that trading system promoted free flow of trade, free flow of investments; it encouraged MNCs to look for places to do business. We were efficient. We were doing well. We came out from trouble, we plugged back in. We could resume growing, resume developing, resume succeeding. So every time you run into trouble, you come up, you plug it, you grow it. Next time there is trouble, you come out, the system is still there.
It is a global financial system, the WTO system. And that was what helped us. What was it about that system which helped us? It gave countries big and small a level playing field. Whether you are a big country or a small country, under the WTO system, the rules are the same, your access is the same. What do I mean? Let's say between countries. We trade, right? Sometimes we have tariffs, sometimes we have other restrictions. You are allowed to do that, but you may not discriminate between your partners, big ones and small ones. Let us take an example, if the EU raises tariffs on cars from Japan. In order to protect European cars, you raise tariffs on Nissan or Toyota, then you must charge the same tariff on cars from every other country; Chinese cars, Korean cars, Indian cars, American cars. You have to treat them the same. If Singapore had cars to export, Singapore would also be charged the same tariffs.
On the other hand, if we give a concession to a country – for example, if Australia says, “I allow rice from India to be sold duty-free”, then they have to do the same for rice from all other countries: Japanese rice, Chinese rice, Vietnamese rice, and American rice. Everybody has to come in also duty-free. It has to be a level playing field. You can protect yourself, but you cannot discriminate between your partners. And that is called MFN - Most Favoured Nation. It sounds like if you are MFN, that you get some special favour – “most favoured” – but actually most favoured just means equal favour, means you do not get more than anybody else, and you do not get less than anybody else. And it is a level playing field for countries big and small. But what it means is that for small countries, who have very little bargaining power, because the rules are like that, so we enjoy the same market access which big countries enjoy, and we benefit from the bargaining power of bigger countries. And therefore, we can get access, and therefore we can get investments, and therefore we can get jobs. So, MFN is critical to Singapore.
What is different this time is that the US does not want MFN. They want to dismantle the system. They want to replace MFN with reciprocal tariffs, meaning I would not treat everybody equally. I want to treat each person, each partner, one-on-one. I deal with you, you deal with me. What you give me, I give you, at least in principle. When you bargain, of course, I would like you to give me a little bit more, and therefore, exploit America's bargaining power. Because they are big – one quarter of the world’s GDP, one seventh of total goods trade in the world. “Why treat everybody equally? They do not have the cards.” To borrow some famous words. Why not we treat this one-on-one, like arm wrestling. Let's see who has got more biceps, who has got a stronger arm, and we will see who is stronger. We will get more that way. It is a fundamentally different kind of world which the US is looking for and pushing for. And the approach is not win-win, but win-lose. In other words, the US wants to do well for themselves. They really do not mind whether the other countries do well for themselves. And President Trump recently is on record saying, “If we had made a really fair deal and a good deal for the United States, not a good deal for the others, this is America first. It is now America first.”
So this has very major implications for Singapore, very major implications for the world.
Why this is bad for the world
What does it mean for the world?
First, you are going to have different rules for different countries. Small countries will suffer because they have no bargaining power. But even big countries will not do well because there is going to be a lot of confusion, a lot of uncertainties, a lot of differences in the rules. And far fewer opportunities to trade, to invest, to do business together.
Second, the tariffs – whether they are equal or unequal – and in this case, they will become unequal – will choke off trade, will raise costs, and will dampen growth. In the 2000s, at the beginning of the millennium, the US tariffs were on average at about one percent. So basically, if you can sell to the US, your goods can enter the US almost duty-free. There are some exceptions like trucks – they charge a lot. Other things like sugar, where they are restricted, they are sensitive – they have farmers to protect – or ethanol. But across the board, one percent. They were the anchor of the global trading system. Now, already they are at about 10%, at a level which has not been there for 80 years. It is very high. It is higher than any other developed country.
And if in 90 days’ time, the rest of the reciprocal tariffs come in and they go to 30, 40, or sometimes nearly 50%, then the US tariffs will be even higher than they were before the war, during the Great Depression, when the US pushed the tariffs right up. And that worsened the Depression for the US and for the world. Furthermore, this is not the end of the story, because tariffs in the bundle so far have not counted two products – pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may have been feeling happy for a short while, but America has made it very clear it is coming soon, akan datang. And that will potentially hit Singapore quite hard, because pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are a significant part of our economy. So that is from the immediate impact of the American tariffs.
But when other countries retaliate, then you must expect back and forth, tit-for-tat. It has happened with China. It will happen with other countries. Then it will cause a downward spiral and the impact will be even worse. Canada has already retaliated. The EU has also retaliated, quite carefully, because they are a bit fearful. They have done Harley-Davidson, because that is one of the iconic American products. But they have not put high tariffs on whiskey, bourbon. Why? Because the Americans say, “You do bourbon, I am going to hit French wine, German wine, champagne”. So both sides have held off for now – they can drink to that. But that is a small item. As the quarrel goes on, it will grow bigger, and the impact will be worse. And the Chinese side has gone right to the end. And with the other countries you can head in that direction too. And that will do a lot of harm.
Fourth, when you have tariffs and we say, "Well that is going to dampen growth and things are going to slow down and there will be fewer upsides", it is not just dampening growth. It is going to be very disruptive. If dampened growth means volume goes down, profits go down, maybe bonuses go down; well, I tighten my belt, I still got my job, both of us. Maybe over time, I can go and find another job. But if the supply chains are disrupted, if you get hit by 100% tariffs – companies in China are making Christmas trees for America for Christmas; 150% tariff – Christmas is not going to come. If you have got such a tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors in Singapore, are we going to have Christmas or not? What it means is that industries can be disrupted. Businesses can be totally turned upside down. You may have the whole business model suddenly disappear and not just not hiring more people, but you may find yourself all of a sudden with a lot of surplus workers. How to look after them? And that can very quickly lead to recession – recession in the US itself, and impact elsewhere too. This is going to be a burden on businesses and consumers, on the global economy.
Fifth, with all these new tariffs – this is something which is going to last a very long time. It is not going to go away soon, because once you put in a tariff, once you protect your market, it is very difficult to take it away. People get used to it. Some companies may invest. You put in a tariff, you say, "Come invest in America". So I invest in America. It is really not competitive. You want to build Christmas trees in the US – it is very expensive, where to find workers? But after you have got the tariff and after the Christmas tree factory has come up, then you want to undo it. The factory says, “I am going to die, please help me". So you cannot undo it anymore. It is there. It is a reality. And furthermore, if you undo it, the party in opposition will say "But you see the Chinese have their tariffs still on, why am I disarming myself?” You have to negotiate with them – a further long process.
To go from where the Americans were, before the war, when they had high tariffs, to where they were by 2000 when the tariffs were one percent, nearly zero, that was a nearly 80-year process, gradually bringing things down. So now, if the tariffs go up, they stay up for a while. If you want to bring them back down, I think that is going to be a long process. It is not going to disappear. So that is going to be a long problem.
Impact on us, Singapore?
What is the impact on us? Immediately, the impact on us is – growth. This year, we were hoping for one to three percent growth. That was what we announced around Budget time. But with all this uncertainty in the world, MTI has revised the forecast. They have just put up the new forecast today; they put it down to zero to two percent. Do you know for sure? No. Could it be zero? Possible. Can it be negative? Will we have a recession this year? When we look at the numbers, we do not think so, but it could happen. And it could happen because, actually, you really do not know. You are not looking at whether consumers are ordering, whether demand is good, whether your product is improving, whether everyone is prospering. If I take an optimistic view – let's invest first. I think if I am fast, I will get something. What you do not know is what new policies are going to come. What are other countries going to do? Then, how will America re-retaliate? And you ask me to guess? It is impossible. So the uncertainty is very high, and is a problem, a problem in the short term. And as I explained earlier, in the medium to long term. So we must expect lower growth this year, a recession somewhere down the road, maybe not this year, but quite possibly at some point. And over the medium term, 5, 10 years, this is going to be a less friendly world that we are in.
So the difference between this time and previous crises is: previously you come out, you can come out into a world which is working and we fit in, we work again. This time, we are okay, but the world is not going to be okay, and we have to do our best to make sure that we look after ourselves in this much less hospitable world.
That is just on the economic side. On the geopolitical side, I do not want to go and talk a lot about it tonight, but you know about US-China. We know about the problems which are going to be worsened because of the trade war. So we must expect more US-China tensions, and therefore a less tranquil, less stable region. There will be more demands on us to work very hard, to be friends with both, and to find our own way forward without getting into trouble.
I think for Singapore, it means some very serious implications. This time is different, and we have to understand that, even as we think what we can do about it.
So, what can we do about it? I think there are two areas where you have to think about – one internationally and the other one domestically.
Singapore’s response – International
Internationally – I think we have to continue to support free trade, multilateralism, the WTO. To try to keep the system going and not have it collapse, even though the US is abandoning the rules. The US is the biggest economy. They come out, it has a significant impact on the rest of the world. But the rest of the world is still there, and if we can work together, I think we have a fair shot at keeping the system up.
I give you an example of how this can be done. You will have heard of the TPP – the Trans-Pacific Partnership. You do not need to know the details, but basically, 12 countries got together to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement. Singapore had some part to play, to get this process started right at the beginning. One of those countries was the US. In fact, President Obama was very active in pushing the negotiations and trying to get a deal on the TPP, and he succeeded. But the last step was to get the deal ratified in Congress, then America is in. He could not do that. He left it to his successor. He hoped that it would be Hillary. Hillary said, “No, I repudiate this”, although she was also involved. And anyway, Hillary lost, and Mr Trump won. And Mr Trump had said, “If I come in, I'm going to kill it on Day One”. When he was sworn in on the 20th of January, 2017, on day one, he killed the TPP. But fortunately, the TPP did not die, because there were still 11 members, other than the US. Japan was still there, and Mr Shinzo Abe was Prime Minister of Japan. He exercised leadership, he rallied the other countries, he renegotiated the deal so as to exclude all the parts where we had accommodated American interests, and saved the rest of the deal. And he got the other 11 countries together, and we all signed, and enough ratified.
We now have the CPTPP. America leaves, the game can still carry on. And in the same way, in the global trading system, America does not want to play by the rules anymore. But the other countries, if we can maintain the system as we trade with each other, I think that is important, and that would be very valuable to countries like Singapore. So we will work with other countries to try and make that happen. That is the first thing we can do.
The second thing we can do is to promote trade arrangements with like-minded partners. For example, we have the ASEAN group. We have an ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. The EU is a major partner, and we can do business with the EU. ASEAN can have an FTA with the EU, negotiate with them, expand the ink blot for free trade. Create more avenues for us to cooperate, win-win with one another. And Singapore is pushing for that. In fact, the ASEAN trade ministers met, and I think they will be working at this and working with other partners too.
The CPTPP, that is valuable too. That can also grow. UK joined the CPTPP. They need to – they had left the EU, they had no partners, no alternative. They came in but we welcomed them. But the EU, looking around for partners, says, “How about EU and CPTPP, we get together? One in the Asia Pacific, including Canada and Mexico and Peru and Chile, and the other one in Europe. And we can get together for something valuable.” The CPTPP members are keen, the European Commission President von der Leyen, she is keen. I hope that if we push that, we can get something. This is one of those situations where you want momentum. If you are sitting there doing nothing, something will happen to you. If you are standing up and pushing something, you may make more progress, you may make less progress, but you will make some progress and you will be better off than where you are. And this is an area where we need to make progress and Singapore will help to push.
Thirdly, externally we need to do more with our ASEAN partners within ASEAN. We have an FTA as I said, but you can do a lot more. And I hope that with this additional impetus, we can do more of that. For example, Singapore and Malaysia we are talking about the Johor-Singapore SEZ. In Johor, companies can go there, they can have favourable terms and Singapore companies can prosper. Malaysian business will benefit, Malaysia will benefit, and foreign companies can be there and be in Singapore and therefore they also can benefit. And in the process, Singapore and Malaysia, we work closer together, that is good. When that happened, there were reports in the Indonesian newspapers to say, “Well, Singapore and Malaysia are doing an SEZ, what is Singapore doing with Indonesia?” And the answer is, we are doing things with Indonesia but I think there is a certain amount of competition, because they see us as being able to add value. And I hope that with this pressure within ASEAN, we will do more. So internationally, globally, with WTO – try and keep the system intact. Big partners between trading groups can come together and form bigger blocs. Within ASEAN, try to make ASEAN stronger, more relevant. And Singapore, we are small, but our trade is not small. I think we have some contribution to make.
Singapore’s response – Domestic
We have to respond to the new situation domestically. And I will say it in three ways. First in terms of practical support, second in terms of psychological preparation and third, politically. In terms of practical support, we need to help households, we need to help businesses, and we need to keep the economy growing. To help households, I think you know we have a lot of things. On cost of living certainly it is the first big item. Typical households this year would be getting around $4,000 in various forms of assistance. We are helping workers who are displaced, for example with the Jobseeker Support Scheme. We designed this expecting dislocation, expecting people to be displaced and this is what we will need, if in fact the tariffs dislocate supply chains and there are significant disruptions to our industries. Then the workers who are displaced will have the Jobseeker Support Scheme to give them support, to tide over the period when they are out of a job, looking for a new job, or training for a new job. We will have support for re-skilling. I talked about that earlier. Overall, I would say the budget package we have is enough for now, but if the situation gets a lot worse, we will do more and I can assure you, we are able to do more.
We have to help the businesses, too. We have set up the Economic Resilience Taskforce under DPM Gan Kim Yong in order to navigate the uncertainties; and to help businesses transform themselves. So it is not just to deal with immediate problems, it is also to deal with the longer term. Take this opportunity of the immediate challenge, to get ourselves prepared to be more competitive in the long term. NTUC is going to be part of this Taskforce, looking at how best to support workers through this.
Secondly, I think we need to be psychologically prepared. We need to be prepared for a more troubled world. You must know that bad weather is coming. But at the same time, we can take comfort knowing that other countries are also facing similar challenges, and Singapore is readier than most of them to deal with this challenge. Readier because we have the plans, we have the resolve, we have the experience, we have the resources, we have the unity. We are ready to do this, and we can do this together.
One of the important things which we must do if we are going to go through this together, is to look at fault lines, and stresses and strains which will build up in our society. Because if you want to go in and say, “Let’s be united,” it is not just wearing the same t-shirt. It is making sure we look after one another, take care of one another. Making sure that when fault lines come up, people who are having greater difficulties, people who may be left behind, people who are dislocated – they do not feel left out, they do not feel alone. They know that others care for them, Singapore cares for them. We will help you – you help yourself, we work at it together. We are in this together. I think that is a very important mindset which we must have during a crisis, going into a crisis, which we are able to do.
It is a problem which in America has led to the pressures and the grievances and dissatisfaction, which have led the government to pursue all these very drastic policies. Because they have certain parts of America which have been left behind, industries all doing badly. They call it the Rust Belt. These are places where the industries have all done badly and the workers have no jobs, and populations are left out. The blue-collar workers in America, their jobs across the country have not done well, their incomes have not done well. Their lives have been blighted by drugs, by unemployment, by crime. Left behind, they voted for a drastic change and they want to break the system, they want a different world.
We must never allow our population or some parts of our population to feel like that. We are going to have stresses and strains too, because there will be retrenchments if there is a recession elsewhere, there will be dislocation if supply lines are interrupted. There is going to be dislocation also if technology comes and we are not prepared for it. If AI comes, if robotics come on a big scale and your jobs are taken away or transformed and you cannot do the new job, you are out of a job, it is no comfort to say that GDP has gone up, but my life is not better. So far, we have prevented that from happening in Singapore. I think in this situation, we must do double to make sure it does not happen.
If you can do all that – look after the households, look after the physical needs, make sure we psychologically prepared – then we can also address the political issue, which is to unite as one Singapore team, working closely with the government. And you need to have a good government, an effective government, a strong government, in order to take care of Singapore. And it has to be strong domestically, in order to be strong internationally.
Let me explain this. I think when you say on foreign policy, Singapore must speak with one voice, I think everybody will agree. Even the opposition agrees. And when you go overseas in a parliamentary delegation, people from different parties, we join the same parliamentary delegation, and we go representing Singapore. But the opposition goes one further. They say, well, overseas, we stand together. Domestically, let’s challenge. Now, that is a problem. Why is that a problem? I tell you, I have been attending international conferences for 20-something years – in fact, for 30, 40, years, but last 20 years at PM. Now, fortunately, PM Wong is doing it. But let me tell you my experience from these conferences. We meet each other regularly, because the conferences happen every year, every other year. This time I see you, maybe next time I see your successor. And in some countries, every time I go to a conference, I see a new PM. Sometimes, I see the PM, I look at his delegation, I see some of the faces there, I read the newspapers, I know that some of those people are hoping to be the next PM. And sometimes it turns out so. So when you meet each other, I assess you, you assess me. I will ask myself, “I am talking to you now. Your Excellency, Prime Minister, yes, sir.” Will you still be here in five years’ time? Will your policy still be here in five years’ time? Can I do business with you, commit and we do something, make a plan? To build a factory may take two, three years. To breakeven on the factory may take 10, 20 years. If you are not going to be here, can I make a deal? So I assess them. Do you think they assess me? Of course! They will see what is happening. They will have their embassies here writing reports. And if you have different views in Singapore, embassies say, well, this PM makes very good speeches, but actually he has a lot of political problems at home. When you meet them, you will be received with the courtesies, but I think they are not carrying the same weight, and you will not be able to defend and advance Singapore's interests in this state.
On the other hand, if they know you are on top of your situation at home, if they know you have strong support, good support, they know you are in touch with your population and you have got your domestic issues well under control, then they take you seriously. In fact, they will ask you, “By the way, your healthcare system I hear is not bad, tell me how you do it.” Or, it has happened to me once, we were discussing corruption. This was quite early in one of my first APEC meetings as PM and one of the big countries said to me, “Singapore, tell us how you combat corruption.” They know about us. They want to know how it works. Makes a big difference.
Therefore, to be effective internationally, to be strong at all, you have to be united domestically. And when people say, Singapore is a safe haven. In an uncertain world, in Singapore, you have security, you have safety. That is why people want to put family offices here. That is why people want to deposit money here. That is why people have confidence and put factories worth billions of dollars here, which take 20, 30 years to pay back, because of Singapore being a safe haven. And one big part of that safe haven, one big factor, is stable politics, good politics.
I know that many Singaporeans want more opposition and if you ask why, they will say, well, we would like a stronger check and balance on the PAP. And I would say the opposition has a role to play in our democratic system. It is here to stay. Opposition MPs are never going to disappear from Parliament. I accept this. That is the way democracies work. We started in a very unusual position with almost overwhelming PAP presence in Parliament, almost zero opposition. And now there is significant opposition, and I do not think that is ever going to...
特别声明:以上内容(如有图片或视频亦包括在内)为自媒体平台“网易号”用户上传并发布,本平台仅提供信息存储服务。
Notice: The content above (including the pictures and videos if any) is uploaded and posted by a user of NetEase Hao, which is a social media platform and only provides information storage services.